Israel’s Demographic Future

The resolution of the Palestinian issue is dependent upon very significant Jewish demographic growth in Israel. There would have to be a ten million growth in Israel’s Jewish population considering that most potential immigrants have lower fertility rates than Muslims in Israel and Judea/Samaria. Israel would subsequently redeem and enfranchise the entire Judea and Samaria while Jordan would annex Gaza. What then are the main sources of future Jewish demographic growth for Israel?

  1. The Haredi fertility rate in Israel has fallen from eight children to six children in the past two decades but will nevertheless no doubt continue to make a significant and disproportionate demographic contribution. If the Haredi fertility rate continues to fall will this remove the Haredi demographic threat to Israeli democracy. The National Religious (Modern Orthodox) fertility rate is four children per mother which is also a significant contribution. The Arab fertility rate in Israel is three children per woman and has been on the decrease since the inception of the state when the fertility rate was nine children per woman. The likewise falling fertility rate among Arabs in Judea and Samaria is also three children per woman.
  2. A majority of Rabbinic Jews still live in the Diaspora with an absolute majority concentrated in the United States. Israel’s economy is driven by rapid growth in its high tech sector and it is not inconceivable that Israel in the foreseeable future will become so wealthy that it will become a magnet for mainly economically motivated immigration of Diaspora Rabbinic Jews and their descendants and relatives. Considering the highly and increasingly assimilated state of the Rabbinically Jewish Diaspora is it difficult to speak in anything near precise approximation regarding the future but the American Jewish population is estimated at under 8 million people. A total of 15 Americans are eligible to immigrate to Israel under the Law of Return. There are an additional one million Rabbinic Jews in Europe with hundreds of thousands elsewhere. America is still significantly wealthier than Israel but Israel is already economically on par with European industrialized countries with significant Jewish populations such as the UK, France and Germany.
  3. The immigration to Israel of 3 million Median Jews from Iran is dependent upon the successful imposition of a no-fly zone on Iran with air support to insurgents in order to bring down the regime or at least make the regime lose control of the ethnic periphery, particularly Iranian Kurdistan where most Median Jews live, the vast majority of whom are Yarsanis. They are expected to immediately emigrate en masse once given the opportunity.
  4. The immigration to Israel of 10-20 million Median Jews in Turkey (there are no statistics available) depends upon successful change of president in Turkey, something which will very likely happen in June 2023. The vast majority of Median Jews in Turkey are Alevis and emigration should be expected to be incremental over the years and even decades considering the relatively developed state of Turkey’s economy.
  5. The immigration to Israel of 1 million Median Jews in Iraq is dependent upon Turkey allowing Median Jews to immigrate to Israel since Turkey would most likely serve as the conduit for Iraqi Median Jews to immigrate to Israel. It is also possible that in the future after the successful imposition of a no-fly zone that Iran could serve as the conduit for Median Jewish immigration to Israel. Emigration to Israel would be swift and complete, most likely within a year.
  6. Israeli annexation of Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions in Syria and Lebanon would add 4 million Median Jews to Israel’s citizenry but would also add 1 million non-Jews, mostly Aramean Christians and Arab Muslims.
  7. While senior Haredi poskim (rabbinic decisors) undoubtedly recognize core Median Jewry as halakhically Jewish, it is quite unclear if they will also recognize the 300 000 Qiang Median Jews in China, the 2 million Maasai Median Jews in Kenya and Tanzania and the unknown numbers of Odinani Igbo Median Jews in Nigeria as halakhically Jewish. However, these populations would no doubt eagerly and immediately immigrate to Israel if given the opportunity.

Israel’s demographic future looks very bright and the prospects for peace are therefore very good indeed although diplomatic peace in the north will require a defensive war to liberate Syria and Lebanon, establish an indigenous Aramean Christian state in parts of Lebanon, annex Median Jewish regions and hand over most of Syria and the remainder of Lebanon to the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) with the PYD (Democratic Union Party) becoming the new ruling party in Damascus. The Golan would remain part of Israel within the new international borders between Israel, Aram and Syria.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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