Will Putin be Unseated?

Many Western experts on Russia have suggested that President Putin will be unseated once Russia has lost the war in Ukraine. This is an interesting question because it is typically predicated on the false assumption that this is “Putin’s war” rather than “the GRU’s war”. Vladimir Putin is not a young man at age 70 and he can obviously not remain in power forever. It is commonly claimed that Putin made a mistake in invading Ukraine, but did he? The alternative would have been to attack NATO and that would have been even more disastrous for Russia. So in hindsight, it was better for Russia to start with Ukraine and delay the conquest of the European Union. The truth is that Russia had no choice but to start the war considering the looming Chinese threat against Siberia. Moscow had to become a superpower once more and it could only become so by conquering affluent Europe and milking its economy. The alternative was to become part of the American alliance system and the Russians believed that the Americans could not be trusted and did not have Russia’s best interests in mind. Will Putin align with America if Russia is kicked out of Ukraine? Yes and if he does not he will be unseated. Putin simply practices realpolitik and so if it best suits Russian interests to become part of the American alliance system, so be it.