Learn From the Past

When Israel under US pressure rerouted the Jerusalem Day Flag Parade it led to war with Hamas in Gaza; whenever the regular route was followed there was no war. Rerouting the Flag Parade is extremely dangerous because it is perceived as a victory for terrorism and as such it encourages terrorism and therefore may lead to war once more. The US government is under the false impression that Palestinian terrorism is caused by ”Israeli provocations” under a kind of behaviorist stimuli-and-response theory. This is not true. The calm during Ramadan was not thanks to Israeli restraint but rather to the US dispatching a submarine with nuclear missiles to the Persian Gulf. I.e. America temporarily achieved deterrence through show of force. It must be repeated, rerouting the Flag Parade is a a sign of profound weakness and thus dishonor and is hence deeply destabilizing. America must consider that its own deterrence is weak considering the threat of Iran targeting major American cities with biological weapons during a multifront war in the Middle East and so rerouting the flag parade could thus prove calamitous for American national security.