Time is increasingly running out as the JCPOA is effectively expiring. Will the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) take action against Iran? Will the P5+1 prepare a Plan B after the failure of the JCPOA? What about the United States? Is there any teeth to its rhetoric about Iran? Does it have a ready Plan B?
It is increasingly clear that the only power that will take action against the Iranian nuclear weapons program is Israel. However, the only way to permanently prevent the regime from rebuilding its nuclear weapons program after it has been destroyed by Israel is by permanently imposing a no-fly zone over Iran which will permit intermittent air strikes against attempts to rebuild the nuclear weapons program. A no-fly zone will also at the very least cause the ethnic periphery to rebel against the Persian center and US air support to the rebels will allow the regional ethnic majorities to establish self-governing regional governments de facto independent of Tehran. This will deprive the Khomeinist regime of nearly all its oil revenues and will reduce Iran to Persia with only half the population remaining under theocratic rule. Under the best case scenario will the Persians (45% of Iran’s population) also rebel with US air support but this is not as likely as in the ethnic periphery.
A no-fly zone should be imposed under UNSC authorization as should new comprehensive UN sanctions against Iran. The international community needs to overcome its fear of Iranian mass terrorism and unite against the Khomeinist menace. The era of the JCPOA is effectively over and there is no turning back. Tehran has made a strategic decision to leave the JCPOA behind and as the decision was no doubt made by the Supreme Leader himself will it not be reversed under any circumstances whatsoever. This is simply the nature of the political system in Iran.
What practical alternatives are there for the UNSC to a no-fly zone and international sanctions? There are none. The international community as led by P5+1 needs to show that it is serious about nuclear non-proliferation and jointly prepare for real action.