The upcoming Israeli-Russian Summit offers an opportunity to recalibrate Israeli-Russian relations with regard to Syria. Moscow is interested in one thing and one thing only in Syria and that is keeping its naval base and air base in the Alawite region. Everything else is of secondary importance to Moscow.
Iran advances rapidly towards nuclear threshold status and Israel as backed up by the US prepares to launch preemptive air strikes against the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran will no doubt order Hezbollah to unleash massive barrages of tens of thousands of missiles against the city of Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities in revenge. Israel will have little choice but to order the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) in cooperation with the allied SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) to launch a concerted campaign to liberate Syria and Lebanon from the totalitarian and Anti-Semitic forces of Khomenism and Ba’athism. The SDF would liberate Syria with IAF (Israeli Air Force) air support. Israel would establish an Aramean Christian state as the successor state to Lebanon and would annex Median Jewish (Druze and Alawite) regions of Lebanon and Syria to Israel. The new PYD (Democratic Union Party) government in Damascus would annex the remainder of Lebanon while Israel would retain the Golan. All international border changes would take place through a trilateral international agreement and would be fully according to international law.
What does Moscow want from Jerusalem? In short, keeping its naval base and its air base for a very long time with a long-term bilateral agreement that would allow Moscow to keep the bases in place for decades. What does Jerusalem want? Moscow’s international recognition of the future trilateral agreement between Jerusalem, Beirut and Damascus and Moscow’s international recognition of the new post-war governments in Beirut and Damascus. Furthermore does Israel want Russia’s international recognition of Israel’s application of sovereignty over East Jerusalem and the entire Judea and Samaria. Israel of course also wants guarantees that Russian soldiers will not get involved in the Assad regime’s war against the SDF and that Russian fighter planes will stay on the ground during the war and will not bomb the SDF.
The present Syrian regime is doomed to perdition. Moscow will not cut ties with the current Syrian regime but recognizes that it has no future and Moscow is therefore planning ahead. Moscow recognizes that Jerusalem is the rising power in the Levant and Moscow is adjusting accordingly. Moscow senses that its international recognition of border changes in the region is a small price to be paid for retaining a foothold in the Levant. For the Israelis is allowing the Russians to retain their bases a heavy concession indeed but international recognition is also important and relations with Russia are strategically important indeed.