The Lebanese civil war ended in 1990 and it eventually turned out that Hezbollah refused to abide by the Taif Agreement which it had signed and which stipulated that all Lebanese militias had to disarm. It ultimately turned out that Lebanon preferred peace with Hezbollah, the Jihadist terrorist organization over peace with Israel, Lebanon’s liberal democratic neighbor to the south. The Hezbollah threat has since then only grown and grown and Hezbollah has increasingly taken over the Lebanese state step by step in accordance with its instructions from the IRGC. Hezbollah now possesses 150 000 missiles and is capable of causing enormous damage to the city of Tel Aviv, Israel’s economic capital. In ten years time will Hezbollah be able to raze Tel Aviv to the ground unless Israel destroys Hezbollah in a timely fashion and that time is pretty much now.
Lebanon with its corrupt and immensely wealthy political elite is developing into a failed state which cannot feed its citizens and has run out of gasoline. The more successful Hezbollah becomes it seems the more failed Lebanon becomes. There is no indication that the Lebanese Republic would opt for confronting Hezbollah and make peace with Israel. Instead, Lebanon in league with Iran is moving ever closer to the abyss. Israel has no choice but to dismantle Lebanon along with Hezbollah for they are inextricably intertwined and it is not possible to destroy Hezbollah without undoing Lebanon in the process. It is important to emphasize that Israel is committed to the establishment of an Aramean Christian state as the successor state to the dismantled Lebanon.
Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear weapons program before Iran becomes a nuclear threshold state and then in revenge Hezbollah will unleash massive barrages of tens of thousands of missiles against the city of Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities. Israel will have no choice but to launch one of the largest military operations in its history in ordering the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) in cooperation with the allied SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) to liberate the northern Levant from the nefarious, totalitarian and Anti-Semitic forces of Khomeinism and Ba’athism. The SDF will liberate Syria with IAF (Israeli Air Force) air support and advance southwards from Aleppo towards Damascus. Israel will establish an Aramean Christian state and annex Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon to Israel. The new PYD (Democratic Union Party) government in Damascus will annex the remainder of Lebanon. All annexations will be according to international law and will take place through a trilateral international agreement between Jerusalem and the new governments in Beirut and Damascus. Golan will remain part of Israel under the agreement.
By choosing peace with Hezbollah over peace with Israel has Lebanon effectively signed its own death warrant. The old terrorist Lebanon will die and the Free Aram will rise on its ashes. It is in principle not too late for Lebanon to confront Hezbollah and choose peace with Israel, but of course, that will not happen. In practice, Lebanon chooses its own tragic destiny.
Israel has no choice but to prioritize its own interests and its own survival irrespective of the significant suffering and the immense havoc it will wreak. The destruction of Lebanon is preferable to the destruction of Tel Aviv from Israel’s perspective and that must be Israel’s perspective.
However, a new Middle East will rise from the war. Israel will annex 4 million Median Jews, something which will demographically allow it to redeem and enfranchise the entire Judea and Samaria and for Jordan to subsequently annex Gaza in thus ending the Palestinan dispute. While a Hezbollah insurgency against the SDF no doubt will continue for many years – will there be peace throughout the Levant and Israel will enjoy peace with all its neighbours and Iran will no longer have any influence over the Levant.