A Multifront War

Israel will find itself in multifront war with Iran and its regional proxies, probably during 2022 (and at the latest during 2023) after America and Israel destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program as Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) will launch a frontal assault against Israel. There will be intense conflict with Gaza although Israel is unlikely to liberate the territory. In the southern theater we will see the most intensive rocket rain from Gaza against Israeli cities so far in any war between Israel and Gaza. In this war will Hamas not be eager for a ceasefire but will rather seek to prolong the conflict for maximum international propaganda effect as well as test Israeli resilience through an intense war of attrition which may go on for many weeks. There will be a far larger war in the northern theater not only with Hezbollah but with Syria and Lebanon as well. There will be competition in news coverage between the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, with Lebanon initially likely gaining a greater share of news coverage. 

This will not be the first time Israel invades Lebanon but this war will be different from previous times since Israel will liberate the entire Lebanon and the entire Ba’ath-controlled Syria, establish an Aramean Christian state (Aram), annex Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon and subsequently hand over most of Syria and the remainder of Lebanon to the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) of the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria). We will see Israeli blitzkrieg in the northern theater while it is uncertain for how long the conflict will go on in the southern theater. In the eastern theater, Israel will be attacked by Iranian missiles. Israeli cities will be attacked with projectiles with chemical warheads by Hezbollah and quite possibly also by Iran. Despite precautions, this will cause thousands of Israeli civilian deaths and tens of thousands of Israeli wounded civilians. In addition will Israel likely face largescale riots by thousands of extremist Israeli Palestinians who will try to block roads to prevent the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) from operating within Israel.

The Israeli homefront will suffer massive losses for the first time since Israel’s 1947-49 War of Independence. The war will go on for weeks. Hezbollah will try to unleash its entire arsenal of rockets and missiles in as short a period of time as possible and Israel will seek to defeat Hezbollah and its state patrons in as short a time as possible. Will Israeli diplomats be able to persuade the international community in advance that its defensive war is just? The international diplomatic reactions have a significant impact on the attitudes of foreign journalists towards Israel and negative media attitudes towards Israel in turn inexorably leads to diffusion of Anti-Semitism on social media. Israel will be part of a large international Iran coalition and since Gaza, Hezbollah, Syria and Lebanon are allied with Iran could Israeli coalition membership favorably impact international reactions towards defensive Israeli warfare in the Levant. Israel and America will together destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program, but it is unlikely that Israel will participate in the effort to impose a no-fly zone over Iran as the IAF (Israeli Air Force) will need to focus on its wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.

There will be new international borders between Israel, Syria and Aram (the successor state to Lebanon) and the new international boundaries will be confirmed through a trilateral peace agreement between Jerusalem and the new governments in Damascus and Beirut. The AANES as led by the PYD (Democratic Union Party) will become Syria’s new government and Aramean nationalist leaders will form the new pro-Israel government in Aram. Will the international community recognize the new governments in Damascus and Beirut and internationally recognize the new international boundaries between the three countries? Different countries are likely to react differently in this regard but there will likely increasingly be significant international recognition.

This will be the first time that Israel wages war in alliance with foreign governments since 1956. The chemical weapons assault on Israel will be genocidal in intention and the extensive carnage caused to civilians in Israel may qualify as genocide. This will reinforce Israeli resilience and Israelis will support the war in the north to a degree that would be unlikely without the extensive terrorist assault on Israeli cities. Israel will find it difficult to treat all the wounded, including from chemical weapons attacks, and Israel’s allies may even set up military field hospitals in Israel to treat the wounded.

The war will also be a shock to the Israeli public since the existence of core Median Judaism will be publicly revealed with Israel’s annexation of Median Jewish regions of Syria and Lebanon.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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