How can the US-Israel relationship be so reinforced that it becomes unbreakable as both America and Israel fear being abandoned by the other in the long-term? There is a consensus among Middle Eastern governments that the United States intends to disengage from Islamdom and the US implausibly denies this despite the stated ambition to focus on China. The Biden administration however understands that it cannot pivot away from the Middle East to Asia without first resolving the Iranian issue and hence its adamant, yet utterly hopeless focus on returning to the JCPOA and even concluding a new nuclear agreement with Iran after the JCPOA is officially dead and buried.
The Biden administration understands however that military options will become inevitable once the path of negotiation conclusively collapses. The US and Israel will jointly destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and impose a no-fly zone over Iran that will provide air support to armed rebellions throughout the country. If Iran as expected attacks America and its allies with weapons of mass destruction and if the insurrection fails in Persian areas (unlike in the ethnic periphery where success is guaranteed) then a US-led invasion of Iran will become completely and utterly unavoidable. President Biden understands this and is ready to defend America.
The Jihadists – including Iran – want America to disengage from Islamdom. However this does not detract from the issue of whether a partial disengagement from Islamdom is an American interest. The question is what kind of disengagement is implemented and what the consequences will be. First, most nations are not militarily capable of major military intervention on their own and America will remain indispensable in this regard such as in the present case of Iran. Second, America is overstretched and needs to focus on encircling and containing China. Third, a new security architecture needs to be devised for a post-Islamist Islamdom that needs to be defended from the threat of Russian and Chinese expansionist colonialism/imperialism. Islamdom lacks a stabilizing security architecture and is therefore chronically unstable and constantly in a state of flux. Fourth, the role of Israel is critical in building this new security architecture as only Israel is capable of bringing nations of Islamdom together in a new security order. The Mossad is highly trusted and esteemed by the great majority of nations of Islamdom as a security partner against the Islamist threat. Fifth, the new security architecture must be forward-looking as designed to prevent Russian and Chinese wars of expansion in Islamdom. Sixth, Israel does not want to become a Chinese or Russian colony and Israel therefore has a vested interest in securing Islamdom as a buffer against Chinese and Russian expansionism. Seventh, America and Israel have common interests in securing Islamdom from imperialism. Eighth, America is strategically distrusted by US allies in Islamdom and by Israel because of the increasingly unpredictable American presidential system as every new American president in this century has had a completely new foreign policy for Islamdom. Nations of Islamdom fear the coming of an isolationist president and Israel – considering the increasing mainstreaming of leftwing Anti-Semitism in the US – fears the possibility that an Anti-Semite will be elected president of the United States.
America cannot be involved everywhere at the same time and must focus on defending Asian allies against Chinese expansionism. Everyone else must be empowered to collectively defend themselves with as little American participation as possible. A new Israel-led security structure will enormously reinforce the interdependence between the US and Israel and thus prevent a situation where a “problematic” president would recklessly endanger the Middle East through isolationist and/or Anti-Semitic policies. America has a long tradition of stability in foreign policy as well as the American people electing centrist presidents. However, this can no longer be taken for granted. That is yet another reason why a new security architecture that will survive the election of non-mainstream presidents in the United States must be prepared for a post-Islamist Islamdom as based on American devolution of powers to US allies. This is the American interest.
The US disengaging from Islamdom and devolving much of its superpower duties in Islamdom to Israel will very strongly reinforce the US-Israel relationship and make it bulletproof since the US and Israel will become even more indispensable to each other to the degree that the relationship will survive the not entirely improbable nightmare scenario of an Anti-Semite being elected president of the United States. A US disengagement from Islamdom does not mean that the US will not be involved in Islamdom, only that it will keep a lower profile, act more discreetly in times of peace and let Israel represent it in most regards. The guiding principle in US-Israel relations should be that Israel will promote US interests in Islamdom while the US will promote Israeli interests outside Islamdom.