What Will Happen After the Destruction of the Iranian Nuclear Weapons Program?

A weekend interview in the Israeli daily Israel Hayom provided an insight into the perspectives of Israeli decision-makers. The interview was with one colonel T; the head of the IDF General Staff Strategy and Third-Circle Directorate. Ostensibly was the interview a sales pitch in order to persuade Israeli elected politicians to engage more in Iran-related defense spending. This is highly peculiar since members of the IDF are not allowed to get involved in domestic Israeli politics. Colonel T. claimed that Iran is patient and is not interested in destroying Israel in the coming 25 to 50 years, something which appears reassuring and begs the question why massive defense spending is so urgent? 

Rather, the Israeli objective was different and quite transparent, namely to send the message to Hassan Nasrallah that Israel does not believe in his threats. Unfortunately, contrary to what colonel T. tried to mislead the Israeli public into believing may the Iranian Axis want war with Israel in the near term. Either the Israeli defense establishment suffers from a severe conceptzia (disastrous strategic misjudgement) or colonel T. is simply engaging in disinformation. The reality is that there will be no Iranian return to the JCPOA because of the rapid development since 2015 of electric vehicles and this affects Iran’s timetable for nuclear breakout and regional expansion in the oil-rich Mahdist apocalyptic region (Arabia and the Fertile Crescent). In 25 to 50 years from now Iran will no longer be a regional great power because oil will be phased out for good worldwide. And so to claim that Iran would wait with destroying Israel until it is no longer a great power is hardly a credible thing to say. Colonel T. knows this and deliberately lied to the Israeli public about the acute and severe threat that the Iranian Axis poses to Israel, including with chemical weapons in the hands of Hezbollah.

It would be extremely inconvenient to wage war in Syria and Lebanon before the June 2023 Turkish elections. Why is that? President Erdogan would under no circumstances allow Alevis and other Turkish Median Jews to immigrate to Israel and would rather instigate civil war than let that happen because he does not want to end the Palestinian issue, which Alevi mass immigration to Israel effectively would terminate as Israel would be demographically able to redeem and enfranchise the entire Judea and Samaria with Jordan subsequently annexing Gaza. Therefore, Israeli leaders would not want to publicly announce the existence of Median Jewry and acknowledge their legal right to immigrate to Israel as long as Erdogan remains in power. It is simply politically highly inconvenient. Hence, Israel does not want war with Hezbollah prior to the ousting of Erdogan which is expected in June 2023 because war would involve annexing Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon and thus officially recognizing Median Jews as fully Jewish without need for conversion.

Iran has identified this Israeli unwillingness for war and is therefore expecting a much more limited conflict similar to the one in 2006 but with a much more devastating impact on Israel. Why does Israel not want war? Because at this point Israel has nothing to gain from war. Hassan Nasrallah has threatened that Hezbollah will attack the Karish gas field should Israel begin pumping gas to the Israeli mainland as Israel has promised to do. Israel obviously cannot under any circumstances give in to the threats of a terrorist organization and so it appears that war is imminent.

The real question of course is what will happen after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Is Iran bluffing about planning a massive retaliation? It might seem somewhat peculiar that Hezbollah threatens war against Israel already now rather than preserving all military options for a retaliation against an American-Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The question of course is whether Hezbollah is bluffing now? The answer appears to be that unfortunately Hezbollah and Iran are not bluffing.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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