What is the Extent of the New Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?

“We strongly condemn any provocative efforts that have the potential to provoke an uncontrolled escalation of tensions in a region that’s far from being peaceful as it is.

Such destructive actions could have unpredictable consequences for peace and stability in the Middle East.

That has to be understood by the organizers of the brazen raid, their backers and those who are gloating over the issue, holding on to the futile hope for the weakening of Iran.”

January 30, 2023; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation

The above statement directed against Israel (“organizers”), the United States (“backers”) and Saudi Arabia (“gloaters”) is quite interesting. Is it an empty threat aimed at divide and rule or is it an indication of an hitherto unknown aspect of the Russo-Iranian new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact? What did we already know about this defense agreement and what can we learn from this cryptic official statement? We know that the parties are arming each other. We have very strong reasons to assume that this is part of an offensive strategic alliance whereby Russia conquers Europe and Iran simultaneously conquers the Arab world. There are two countries which are both Western and part of the Middle East and those are Turkey and Israel. We can assume that Russia and Iran plan to cooperate in the Turkish and Israeli theaters. Furthermore, there is nothing that Israel can do to influence Moscow in this regard. Is Russia bluffing? No, it is not and it does not matter what Israel does vis-a-vis Ukraine, Russia will still fight with Syrian and Iranian forces against Israel, that is the harsh reality. The die is cast and it is now official. Does it mean that Russian Jews will be prevented from immigrating to Israel? They will have to emigrate through third countries. What is Russia implying? Russia is planning a southern Russian front whereby Russia will invade first Georgia and then Turkey to reach territorial continuity with Syria. Iran obviously is not planning to conquer Syria (unlike the rest of the Arab world) and Syria of course is an ally of both Iran and Russia. Who will get Turkey? Iran wants it not least because of the large Alevi, Bektashi and Alawite population which the mullahs regard as Shi’i. However, the deal between Moscow and Tehran is undoubtedly that Russia gets Turkey and Iran gets Israel although they will fight together against Israel in Syria. This is the harsh reality and hence the need for Jerusalem and Washington to strengthen Ankara strategically in military terms. Furthermore, there is a need for America to broker reconciliation between AANES and Turkey, something that the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus would be particularly well-advised to facilitate subsequent to the May 2023 elections in Turkey. The US clearly needs to station far larger forces in NES (North and East Syria) and this is undoubtedly in the interest of Ankara as well.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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