What will US policy on Iran be after the demise of the JCPOA? Secretary of State Antony Blinken has strongly and repeatedly pronounced that the Malley doctrine (endless negotiations) is not US policy (or rather no longer US policy). The US has however given no indications as to what will be its Iran policy after the JCPOA. While the US has repeatedly stressed that it has “other options”, there are distinctly not many options available to the United States.
There are four tools available and these are 1) further sanctions, 2) a no-fly zone with air support to armed rebellions, 3) destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program and 4) an invasion.
The US is likely to apply further sanctions and the US will most likely have no other choice than joining an international coalition to impose a no-fly zone. Will the US or Israel be the one to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program? If the US subcontracts this task to Israel will the imposition of the no-fly zone likely take place significantly later in time than if the US is the one to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
US participation in the imposition of the no-fly zone is absolutely essential to ensure the success of the armed rebellions in Persian areas where success means that the Khomeinist regime will fall from power. Success is guaranteed in the ethnic periphery even without US participation. Iran is preparing to launch successive waves of chemical weapons attacks against the American homeland to bring the US government into submission. If the Persian uprising fails will the US government have no choice but to invade Persia in order to protect America from further chemical weapons attacks.
It is clear that America needs to participate in the effort to impose a no-fly zone over Iran as a matter of national necessity.