Russia continues its buildup of forces alongside the border with Ukraine. This is the test of the success of US deterrence. If US economic deterrence were successful would Russia surely discontinue its military buildup near Ukraine. US intelligence has provided proof that Russia plans false flag operations in the rebel regions of eastern Ukraine as intended to provide an excuse for a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yet, the Biden administration is not drawing the right conclusion, as the economic deterrence does not work. The Russian tactic of deterring the United States from admitting Ukraine to NATO sadly works and reinforces the Russian belief that conquering and annexing Ukraine is worth the economic price as Russia can shift its trade from Europe and North America to China.
This war can still be prevented and that is done by immediately admitting Ukraine to the NATO alliance. The Biden administration’s failure to draw logical conclusions from its failed economic deterrence policy furthermore emboldens Iran and reinforces their belief that President Biden is “weak” in further undermining US deterrence vis-a-vis Iran. The failure of the US administration to present a military deterrent by admitting Ukraine to NATO may also embolden China to invade Taiwan.
The US policy of strategic ambiguity vis-a-vis Russia and China, in not directly saying that the US will come to the aid of Ukraine and Taiwan in case of invasions of either of those countries motivates aggression and further critically endangers US national security in reinforcing the Iranian belief that Iranian WMD terrorist attacks against major American cities in response to Israel and the US destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program, will lead to the US disengaging from the Middle East and Islamdom.
Washington may believe that admitting Ukraine to NATO would trigger war and that is exactly what Moscow wants them to think. On the contrary, granting Ukraine membership in NATO is practically speaking the only way to prevent a Russian invasion and annexation of the entire Ukraine. The White House should consider that Ukraine is about to become a second Czechoslovakia with Russia now set to conquer the rest of Ukraine. Ukrainian NATO membership will not ignite war but rather prevent war. America must restore its credibility.