What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?

For over a year Iran experts and intelligence analysts around the world predicted that Iran would return to the JCPOA. Only now are Israeli officials coming to the realization that there won’t be an agreement. Even so they claim that chances of an agreement are “slim to none”. This reveals a complete misreading of the Iranians. The Americans have all along been negotiating sincerely and in good faith to return to the JCPOA but the Iranians have in contrast merely been pretending to negotiate while playing for time, enriching uranium to advanced levels and appeasing Beijing and Moscow. The risk – not chance – of an agreement is not slim, it is nil and has been so all along. The fundamental problem with Iran experts (including most intelligence analysts focused on Iran) is that they refuse to acknowledge the religious influences on Iranian policy making and therefore overrationalize Iranian motivations, policies and behaviors. What is Khomeinism? It is fundamentally a martyrdom-seeking cult believing in an engineered global apocalypse. Without acknowledging this simple fact one misses the larger picture of extremely aggressive Iranian intentions vis-a-vis the entire world.