The reality that most do not want to acknowledge is that the Khomeinist leadership in Iran for their own reasons simply do not want to return to the JCPOA and they are not interested in any alternative agreement either. Any viable agreement would have to have bipartisan support and be acceptable to Israel and its Arab allies. A non-viable agreement is unlikely to last beyond the 2024 US presidential election which Donald Trump is expected to resoundingly win and so one must of course ask why the Iranians would be interested in such a short term agreement? They would get drastically increased oil revenues for little more than two years although there would be no increase in international trade with Iran and international investment in Iran. However, the mullahs understand that they are closer to attaining nuclear weapons capability than ever and they are not willing to accept a deferment this time. In 2015 they managed to bring an end to the international consensus against Iran and end UN economic sanctions. These achievements remain in Iran’s pockets without the JCPOA. Iranian leaders believe that they have found economic independence and that the acceleration of the nuclear weapons program must be prioritized in the interest of engineering the Khomeinist apocalypse and thus hastening the reappearance of the Hidden Imam.
Israel’s National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata claimed a week ago that Jerusalem is not interested in a military solution to the Iranian problem. These are surely worrying comments. Are Israeli government officials taking advice from the serial miscalculators in Aman, Israeli military intelligence, whose intelligence analysts insist on misunderstanding the cognitive world of Khomeinists or are they taking advice from the Mossad which is more attuned to reality? Another explanation could be that the Israelis are playing along diplomatically in order to influence a second diplomatic process with the Iranians. Yet another explanation is that the Israeli government completely understands the apocalyptic mental world of the Khomeinists but are not showing their cards in understanding that military confrontation with Iran is completely inevitable yet that there is no need for pushing the United States as war with Iran will come anyway as the Iranian nuclear weapons program advances. This would be motivated by not harming Israel’s military integration with the United States by causing a diplomatic rift with the US when it comes to preparations for a joint American-Israeli assault on the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
Israel may likely have an integrated diplomatic and security grand strategy in simply not being entirely certain regarding Iran’s intentions and thus keeping Israel’s options open for any and all scenarios while protecting Israel’s security interests and relations with the United States under all circumstances.