What conclusions should Arab governments draw from the new apparent Molotov-Ribbentrop pact between Russia and Iran whereby Moscow conquers Europe and Tehran simultaneously conquers the Arab world in a WWIII possibly half a decade from now?
Tehran counts on Arab disunity and on an Arab domino effect whereby Iran can pick off one major Arab country after another in order from East to West. The United States is unable to unify Arab nations and Israel is the only power capable of uniting the Arabs, yet that requires strong American backup and American provision of various incentives, arms deliveries and guarantees to Arab governments. Forming a MENA version of NATO requires hard diplomatic work not least because it also requires normalization with Israel. Yet, the primary Arab conclusion must be that forming a MENA defense alliance with Israel and the US is urgent since WWIII may only be half a decade away.
The outcome of the Ukraine war carries major geostrategic implications worldwide. If and when Russia is defeated and driven out of Ukraine is the consequence that WWIII can be avoided, Russia will be brought into the American orbit (in order to defend Siberia from China) and China will be contained and surrounded by US allies, unable to conquer mainly thinly populated nations (including the KSA) as it plans to do a few decades from now. Thus, the secondary conclusion is that the Arabs need to support Ukraine, in particular, oil-rich Arab nations need to provide Ukraine with generous financial aid.
Furthermore, there needs to be close coordination between NATO and the future MENA defense alliance. This is the tertiary conclusion.
In addition, the process of normalization between Israel and Arab nations needs to be sped up in order to pave the way for the MENA defense alliance. This is the quaternary conclusion.
Aliyah Organization 