Israel’s deterrence posture against Iran has collapsed and it is unclear why this is so, one possible explanation is that Tehran assumes that the Democratic administration in the US will intervene to prevent Israel from nuking Qom after Iran’s proxy Hezbollah attacks Israeli cities with chemical weapons subsequent to Israel’s destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Irrespective of the reasons for the collapse in Israel’s deterrence posture, Israel needs to seriously reconsider its policy of nuclear ambiguity.
By officially declaring itself a nuclear weapons power would Israel reinforce and restore its nuclear deterrence posture against Iran. Israel should also consider joining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as Israel possessed nuclear weapons before January 1, 1967 and is thus a legitimate nuclear weapons power according to the NPT.
Iran’s willingness to use chemical weapons against Israel is likely rooted in complex miscalculations based on how Iran through its lens of conspiratorial Anti-Semitism perceives the US-Israel relationship. According to the Islamist view is Israel “a colony” of the US-based ostensible global Jewish conspiracy. Iran assumes that the Jewish conspiracy is a Deep State which is able to influence the US government through illicit means. Iran apparently presumes that the alleged Jewish Deep State acts similarly to the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet in Turkey or the Khomeinist IRGC in Iran.
Israel needs to seriously study how it can restore its nuclear deterrence posture against Iran. While nuclear ambiguity has served Israel well, Israel needs to consider whether the threat of Hezbollah chemical weapons attacks could possibly be deterred by Israel officially becoming a nuclear weapons power as recognized under the NPT.