Does Iran Believe That it Will Make Israel Collapse?

Iran claims that its assault on Israel with rockets, missiles, chemical warheads and drones from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen will make Israel collapse. Do they actually believe this or is it just propaganda hyperbole? What is clear is that the Israeli home front will suffer immensely as a result of the assaultContinue reading “Does Iran Believe That it Will Make Israel Collapse?”

Iran is Undeterred

Israel does not yet have a military capability to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and will not have one for about a year or so and the US still does not have a Plan B. So currently the Iranians are not worried. However, no one should be surprised that Iran is undeterred. The lackContinue reading “Iran is Undeterred”

Israel Should Reconsider its Policy of Nuclear Ambiguity

Israel’s deterrence posture against Iran has collapsed and it is unclear why this is so, one possible explanation is that Tehran assumes that the Democratic administration in the US will intervene to prevent Israel from nuking Qom after Iran’s proxy Hezbollah attacks Israeli cities with chemical weapons subsequent to Israel’s destruction of the Iranian nuclearContinue reading “Israel Should Reconsider its Policy of Nuclear Ambiguity”

Appeasement Undermines Deterrence

The appeasement policy of the Democratic administration undermines America’s deterrence posture. Iran is well aware that no Democratic administration will respond with nuclear weapons to Iranian chemical weapons attacks against America and hence is America highly vulnerable to chemical weapons attacks against major American cities. President Trump was not afraid to abrogate the JCPOA sinceContinue reading “Appeasement Undermines Deterrence”

The Weapons of Mass Destruction Asymmetry

Why has America’s and Israel’s deterrence against Iran collapsed? There is a fundamental asymmetry between Iran and nearly all other countries with weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Iran intends to use weapons of mass destruction while nearly all other countries (with the exception of Syria) abhor using weapons of mass destruction. This is the reasonContinue reading “The Weapons of Mass Destruction Asymmetry”

Ein Brira

There is a Hebrew expression for a situation in which Israel has no choice but to wage war no matter the cost. That expression is ein brira which literally means “no choice”. The advanced development of the Iranian nuclear weapons program means that Israel will face a number of wholly predictable, yet inevitable situations ofContinue reading “Ein Brira”

Iran does not Fear the US and Israel

An axiom effectively regulates Iranian regime attitudes towards the US. Iran fears Republican administrations but not Democratic administrations. This is true today as well. On the contrary, Iran deters the US which dares not attack the Iranian nuclear weapons program due to a well-founded fear that it will suffer Iranian retribution on the US mainlandContinue reading “Iran does not Fear the US and Israel”

Iran’s Threat to Destroy Israel must be Taken Seriously

Iran regularly threatens to destroy Israel after Israel destroys the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran does not possess nuclear weapons and although Hezbollah possesses 150 000 rockets and missiles, Iran is currently not capable of destroying Israel. Why then at this stage is Iran threatening to destroy Israel? Iran has the capacity to cause veryContinue reading “Iran’s Threat to Destroy Israel must be Taken Seriously”

A No-Fly Zone Over Iran is a Vital US National Security Interest

Israel will destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and the attack will likely take place in 2023. The attack would have to be repeated after less than two years and then after less than two years again. These regular attacks would go on indefinitely with intervals of less than two years so as to preventContinue reading “A No-Fly Zone Over Iran is a Vital US National Security Interest”

Iran does not Fear Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence

There is more than one danger with the scenario of Iran developing nuclear weapons. One of course is geostrategic, Iran seeks hegemony and nuclear weapons is one of several tools in its quest for regional hegemony and global superpower status. This is dangerous enough to the region and to the world, a strategic threat noContinue reading “Iran does not Fear Israel’s Nuclear Deterrence”

Why Hezbollah will Strike Israeli Cities with Chemical Weapons

Tehran is well aware that a successful Israeli attack against the Iranian nuclear weapons program would have to be repeated in less than two years time unless a no-fly zone is imposed over Iran that would allow intermittent US airstrikes against the Iranian nuclear weapons program, something which would prevent the program from ever recovering.Continue reading “Why Hezbollah will Strike Israeli Cities with Chemical Weapons”

Israel Faces Calamity and Tehran Openly Declares so

Tehran openly states that Israel faces disaster and most Israelis do not seem to believe the Iranians. As of writing, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) is publicly training for a scenario where Hezbollah will unleash 2 000 projectiles a day for several weeks and where Hezbollah will commit chemical weapons attacks along the Israeli-Lebanese border.Continue reading “Israel Faces Calamity and Tehran Openly Declares so”

Is Khamenei Becoming Mildly Senile or is he Just Dangerous?

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the person in charge of the Islamic Republic of Iran who makes all the major strategic decisions. There is no doubt that he is the one who made the decision to ditch the JCPOA and race towards the bomb knowing full well that Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program. HeContinue reading “Is Khamenei Becoming Mildly Senile or is he Just Dangerous?”

Qom Risks Annihilation

Khamenei plans to use chemical weapons against Israel in the massive rocket and missile war that Hezbollah will wage on Israel following Israel’s destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program in late 2022 or early 2023. Israel has no choice but to annihilate the clerical city of Qom in Iran as a matter of deterrenceContinue reading “Qom Risks Annihilation”

The Perceptual Gap

There is a vast perceptual gap between the P5+1 and the Khomeinist regime. The P5+1 talk the language of reconciliation while Tehran hears weakness and uses the time offered to further enrich uranium towards the goal of amassing enough material to produce a nuclear weapon. For Iran are P5+1 useful infidels to be deceived andContinue reading “The Perceptual Gap”