As the JCPOA is about to effectively expire, we should ponder whose policy is the real US policy on Iran, Rob Malley’s advocacy of endless negotiations or Antony Blinken’s opposition to endless negotiations? Is it possible that the US is transitioning from the Malley doctrine to a Blinken doctrine? Or is Blinken’s rhetoric merely an empty threat in a desperate attempt at salvaging the JCPOA? Israel certainly thinks it is an empty threat. The collapse of the JCPOA illustrates that there is an urgent need for a new international paradigm on Iran.
The only alternative to the JCPOA is the imposition of a no-fly zone over Iran combined with aerial destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program as a no-fly zone will prevent the reconstruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program by means of intermittent air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. A no-fly zone will also offer air support to armed rebellions that will be instigated in response to the imposition of the no-fly zone. It is certain that the rebellions in Iran’s ethnic periphery (where half of Iran’s population lives) will succeed to liberate themselves with allied air support from the Khomeinist totalitarian regime. There is furthermore a reasonable chance that the uprising will be successful in Persian areas as well and thus unseat the Iranian regime.
Why was the JCPOA initiated and concluded? The motivation was to defer the threat of Iran setting off chemical weapons around the world in response to the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Since the Iranian nuclear weapons program could be relatively quickly rebuilt after having been destroyed – would the Iranian nuclear weapons program have to be destroyed every two years or so. This means that Iran would target major cities around the world with chemical weapons every two years. The Iranian intention is to deter any strategic attacks against the Iranian nuclear weapons program and if it happens make sure it is not repeated by creating international pressure to prevent the Iranian nuclear weapons program from being destroyed once more. This nightmarish scenario created the impetus behind the JCPOA although of course governments cannot tell the people since telling the people would potentially have calamitous economic consequences.
America obviously wants to avoid another 9/11 and worse and furthermore want to to avoid having to invade a dangerously apocalyptic Iran. American participation in an international coalition to impose a no-fly zone over Iran will significantly improve the chances of the uprising among the Persians succeeding and not only the uprising in the ethnic periphery which contains most of Iran’s oil resources. The reason this is so is that the more nations and fighter aircrafts that participate in the mission the greater the chance of the Persian uprising succeeding as well. America’s contribution in terms of the number of participating fighter aircrafts would certainly be considerable and would hence significantly increase the chances of bringing down the Khomeinist tyranny altogether. Covering a large country such as Iran with a no-fly zone will require significant participation from many nations around the world, including from Islamdom and Europe.
Shifting paradigm means diplomatically acknowledging that Iranian mass chemical weapons attacks worldwide are inevitable as Israel literally has no choice but destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program in order to prevent a nuclear Holocaust in Israel. No one can prevent Israel from surviving, this is clearly an example of the Israeli military doctrine of ein brira, a war of no choice.
However, nations of the emerging coalition need to persuade the US to implement the Blinken doctrine and actually discard the Malley doctrine. A no-fly zone is the only policy alternative to the JCPOA. Will America embrace endless negotiations or will it oppose endless negotiations? As the JCPOA becomes irrelevant, the US government needs to be persuaded by its allies around the world to join the emerging coalition to impose a no-fly zone over Iran. If the uprising in Persian areas fail will the US government have no choice but to invade Iran in order to prevent further waves of chemical weapons attacks against the American homeland. US participation in the coalition will significantly increase the chances of a successful uprising in the Persian areas as well and hence decrease the likelihood of an American invasion of Iran becoming unavoidable in order to protect the American homeland from chemical weapons attacks.
If Iran were to be allowed to develop nuclear weapons would it not only lead to a Second Holocaust but the Iranian chemical weapons threat would become ten times worse as Iran would be able to perpetrate chemical weapons terrorist attacks with complete nuclear impunity around the world and would no doubt do so. A no-fly zone over Iran is the only viable alternative to the soon effectively expired JCPOA and America’s participation is crucial for optimal success.