Why Iran will Continue to Stall

Iran is determined to continue to accelerate its nuclear weapons program and participation in “negotiations” is merely a means of playing for time so as to satisfy Russia and China in order to avoid UN sanctions. Iran already however has more than enough enriched uranium for one nuclear bomb but Iran is not satisfied with that as the regime seeks to enrich uranium to produce many nuclear weapons. Therefore will Iran continue to enrich uranium and diplomatically play for time until Israel destroys the Iranian nuclear weapons program in 2022 or 2023. The US Iran envoy Rob Malley once stated that the US government will continue to seek a diplomatic solution with Iran even after the JCPOA becomes irrelevant but it is unclear whether this is still US policy. 

One reason many governments have been skeptical about the military option is that it will take the Iranian regime less than two years to rebuild its nuclear weapons program after it has been destroyed. With the option of a no-fly zone over Iran has this concern become irrelevant as a no-fly zone will allow for intermittent bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities so as to prevent the Iranian nuclear weapons program from ever being rebuilt again. A no-fly zone would also involve providing air support to armed rebellions throughout Iran. A no-fly zone will definitely lead to the ethnic periphery – where half of Iran’s population live – freeing itself from the rule of the totalitarian dictatorship but there is a significant chance that it will also lead to the insurrection succeeding in the Persian regions as well and thus cause the downfall of the Khomeinist regime.

The main international motivation for the JCPOA was however the fear of Iranian chemical weapons terror attacks and deferring that threat did in fact work until Donald Trump abrogated the JCPOA in 2018. However, the JCPOA is already history as Iran knows that the Republican party is unanimously opposed to the JCPOA and that the next Republican administration will abrogate any agreement Joe Biden concludes with Iran. This means that Iran has no interest in returning to the JCPOA or for that matter concluding any nuclear agreement with the Biden administration

Iran will therefore continue to play for time and rather than chasing Iran diplomatically should the US move to restore UN sanctions against Iran. The idea that diplomatic engagement – however hopeless – will save the US from Iranian chemical weapons attacks is entirely misguided as Iran will hold the US responsible for Israel destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program as Iran believes that the alleged international Jewish conspiracy controls and is based in the US and that Israel is also controlled by the conspiracy. 

The only gain Iran sees in playing along with the US diplomatically to some degree is to avoid Russia and China agreeing to restore sanctions against Iran. The fear of Russia and China agreeing to sanctions against Iran at the UNSC (United Nations Security Council) is the only reason for Iran to continue to deny that it seeks nuclear weapons. 

The US should not wait for Israel to develop military capacity to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The US should lead the building of the international coalition to impose a no-fly zone over Iran and the US itself should destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The United States has absolutely nothing to lose from this as it makes no difference whatsoever from the perspective of Tehran whether Israel or the US destroys the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran will in either case attack cities of Israel and America and many other countries with chemical weapons. 

Whether the US leads or Israel leads the chemical outcome will be the same, but US participation in the emerging international coalition to impose a no-fly zone over Iran will significantly improve the prospects of the armed rebellion succeeding in Persian areas as well and hence elude the US having to invade Iran.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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