The JCPOA is brain-dead and it is only a matter of weeks until it will be fully dead and buried. The reason is that Iran correctly assesses that returning to compliance with the JCPOA and/or reaching a nuclear agreement with the United States are not conducive to the nuclear and economic interests of the Khomeinist regime. What international investors and export/import firms in their right mind would bet on a long-term commercial relationship with Iran considering that any lifted economic sanctions could be reimposed as early as in three years time if and when the Republicans retake the White House? There are many emerging economies to invest in and/or trade with and none of them entail such political-economic uncertainty and risk as Iran.
There will very likely be no new negotiations with Iran after the JCPOA has been buried as the Khomeinist regime indeed does not consider that to be conducive to Iran’s economic and nuclear interests. Only Iran’s fear that China and Russia would push for reinstated UN economic sanctions against Iran could compel Tehran to participate in further negotiations, yet there is in any case no chance whatsoever that such negotiations would lead to an agreement.
Due to the infighting in the Biden administration between hawks and doves, did President Joe Biden institute dual tracks in America’s Iran policy where there would be efforts to build an international military coalition on Iran as well as militarily train with Israel in preparation for a joint attack on the Iranian nuclear weapons program while at the same time exhausting perceived diplomatic opportunities on Iran. The latter, not unexpectedly, severely undermines America’s efforts to restore its military deterrence vis-a-vis Iran.
Despite the discreet diplomatic efforts underway to expand the emerging international coalition to be activated when the track of the doves inevitably collapses are there nations sitting on the fence such as the UAE (United Arab Emirates). Those nations should consider that Iran already has a prepared and ready list of target countries for chemical weapons attacks. The sleeper cells have been ready for years already and the chemical weapons are most likely in most cases already delivered by submarines approaching the coasts of target countries or coasts of neighboring nations in the case of landlocked nations such as Hungary. What are Iran’s criteria for inclusion on its target list? While it may seem that they would primarily targets Israel’s allies around the world is the only criterion the perceived position in the phantasmatic international “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. Iran has already stated that Israel’s allies in the Arab world will be treated as if they were part of Israeli territory and so the UAE is most definitely on the Iranian list. The notion that a nation can get off Iran’s list by staying out of the international coalition on Iran is entirely misguided and false.
The coalition must establish robust deterrence against Iran by persuading Tehran that the US-led international coalition will invade Iran were the insurrections in the Persian areas as supported by an international no-fly zone with air support to armed rebellions to fail and Iran were to attack coalition members with chemical weapons. The United States needs to make clear that freeloaders will not be protected by the coalition’s invasion deterrent. It is quite essential for the success of the insurrections in the Persian areas (and not only in minority regions where success for the insurrections is guaranteed) that as many nations as possible participate in the international effort to impose a no-fly zone over Iran in providing air support to armed rebellions throughout the country. This is so as no one knows the scope of the future insurrections in Persian areas and thus the actual extent of the need for air support but the insurrection will likely be very extensive. Therefore, the more nations that participate the greater the chance of success in bringing down the terrorist regime.
The United States needs to mobilize its diplomatic power and international leverage to ensure that as many nations as possible participate in the international Iran coalition. No government should be deluded that sitting on the fence will lead to removal from Iran’s attack list. The United States needs to emphasize that there will be consequences for bilateral relations for those nations who choose to sit on the fence. America is facing the worst threat ever against the American homeland as Iran’s sleeper agents are ready to attack major American cities with most likely already delivered chemical weapons. This is a “you are either with us or against us” moment as America will need to carefully assess who its real allies are. The UAE wants to be defended by the United States, but is it ready to fully stand with its American ally? The same question applies to all the other fence sitters around the world.
The notion of being neutral on Iran serves no one’s interest except the Khomeinist regime since inclusion on Iran’s attack list is solely determined by Tehran’s perception of any particular nation’s perceived role in the ostensible international “Jewish conspiracy” to destroy Islam. This is not a rational list since it is based on a conspiracy theory and hence there is no possibility of opting out from the list by means of making diplomatic moves.
While it is true that Russia and China have made sure to be excluded from the list, this is only due to their veto powers at the United Nations Security Council as Tehran is always concerned about a potential reimposition of UN economic sanctions against Iran. No other government should delude itself that it can buy immunity from apocalyptic Iranian attacks with chemical weapons by playing neutral. It is essential that United States diplomats deliver clear and unequivocal messages to its friends, partners and allies around the world that you are only protected if you are part of the coalition. Being part of the coalition is essential since Iran is no doubt prepared for launching successive waves of chemical weapons attacks and possibly also biological weapons attacks. There will be no price to be paid by Iran for attacking nations that are not part of the coalition and hence will they be defenseless.