There is a dispute within Aman (Israeli military intelligence) regarding the intentions of Hezbollah. Is Hezbollah an Iranian proxy or is it a Lebanese patriotic organization? Is Hezbollah primarily interested in taking over Israel or taking over Lebanon? Of course, Hezbollah is run by one man, Hassan Nasrallah who makes all important decisions and although Tehran does not give him orders, it is in practice virtually impossible for him to turn down a request from Iran. Nasrallah likes to project an image of himself as a Lebanese patriot but in practice he is looking after Iran’s interests rather than Lebanon’s interests.
Iran engages in a lot of tactical lying, particularly relating to its nuclear program but on a strategic level is the regime truthful about its intentions to perpetrate genocide in America and Israel. Nasrallah belongs to an Arab rhetorical political tradition where political lying is part and parcel of colorful rhetoric. The Iranians in contrast are committed to not lying unless deemed religiously required such as with regard to the nuclear weapons program. Therefore it may be difficult to know what is lie and what is truth in Nasrallah’s colorful rhetoric. Why did Nasrallah state that it was not certain that Hezbollah would attack Israel after the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program? He meant to hone his Lebanese patriotic credentials but this is in contrast to the Iranian media which openly states that the so-called “Axis of Resistance” (obviously including Hezbollah) will attack the Jewish state after Israel destroys Iran’s nuclear weapons program. In practice does his statement mean that there is no question that Hezbollah will launch a frontal assault on Israel in order to attempt to destroy the Jewish state.
Iranian spokesmen consistently presume that Iran and the “Axis of Resistance” already have the capability to destroy Israel, in threatening to destroy the Jewish state if Israel dares to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is not hyperbole, Iran has no reason to lie or exaggerate. They believe that 150 000 projectiles from Lebanon, 20 000 projectiles from Gaza and who knows how many projectiles from Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Iran as well as the use of chemical warheads on a massive scale will disorient Israeli society and cause a Shock and Awe effect of Rapid Dominance that will hinder Israeli mobilization and allow the Syrian and Lebanese armies to invade and take over Israel. What is shocking is that there are serious thinkers in Aman who assume that Nasrallah would subordinate the priorities of Khomeinism to what are ostensibly his own personal considerations. Hezbollah was founded as a “martyrdom-seeking” Jihadist organization and certainly remains so. Islamists generally are not afraid to start wars since they strongly believe that Allah is on their side and will guarantee them victory.
Israel has so far made no efforts at preparing the Israeli public for mass attacks with chemical weapons and there is no distribution of gas masks and other protective equipment. While it is certainly legitimate for intelligence analysts to make their own independent assessments, Israel finds itself with its worst conceptzia (Hebrew for military strategic misconception) since the Yom Kippur War. Iran and its proxies are preparing to destroy the Jewish state and Aman does not believe them. Why is this so? No one in Israel believes that Iran and its proxies have the capabilities to destroy Israel (unless they use biological weapons but that would destroy the Palestinians as well) but what matters here is that the Iranians believe that they have such capabilities! Of course, from an Israeli perspective does it make sense for Iran’s proxies to not attack Israel and instead continue to build up their capabilities against Israel until they pose a more potent threat than today. These Aman intelligence analysts are thus confusing Israel’s strategic assessment with Iran’s strategic assessment which is a cardinal sin of intelligence analysis in projecting their own views onto the enemy.
Why have Iran and the “Axis of Resistance” amassed all those projectiles, drones and chemical warheads? In order to use them of course. These have two strategic purposes, first deterring Israel from destroying Iran’s nuclear weapon’s program and second destroying Israel. It is bizarre that many Aman intelligence analysts are focusing on the personality of Hassan Nasrallah in predicting Hezbollah’s actions rather than on Hezbollah’s Khomeinist Weltanschauung. To assume that it is possible or even conceivable for Nasrallah to not act in concert with the rest of the “Axis of Resistance” shows that there is a serious problem with intelligence analysis in Aman in understanding the nature, character, intentions and structure of the Khomeinist enemy.