Who Will Invade Whom?

Israel and Iran have completely different assessments as to the outcome of the future conflict between Israel and the so-called “Axis of Resistance” in the Levant. Iran assumes that massive barrages of rockets and missiles, many of them with chemical warheads, will inflict such heavy damage on the Israeli home front and cause such disorientation that Syrian, Lebanese and Gazan forces will be able to invade Israel and destroy the Jewish state. The strategy is the American military doctrine of Shock and Awe, also known as Rapid Dominance. 

Israel considers this absolute nonsense and most of Aman (Israeli military intelligence) mistakenly does not even believe that Hezbollah will dare engage in a frontal assault on Israel. Israel does not believe that the “Axis of Resistance” has even the slightest chance of defeating Israel. Iran of course could annihilate Israel with biological weapons but that would wipe out the Palestinians as well so that will not happen. 

Israel recognizes however that Hezbollah constitutes a strategic threat against Israel albeit not yet an existential one. Of course, Israel is keenly aware that Hezbollah must be destroyed before it develops into an existential threat and so the thinking in Aman goes that Hezbollah will wait with confronting Israel until it constitutes an existential threat. Iran however is absolutely convinced that Hezbollah along with the rest of the “Axis of Resistance” already constitutes an existential threat against Israel.

Israel has no choice but to destroy Hezbollah, liberate Lebanon and Syria from Khomeinism and Ba’athism, establish an indigenous Aramean Christian state (Aram), annex indigenous Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon, hand over most of Syria and the remainder of Lebanon to the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) of the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) and establish new peace borders with the new administrations in Beirut and Damascus.

War is inevitable because there are completely differing assessments as to the outcome of the conflict. Each side is convinced that it will completely defeat the other side and redraw borders in the region. Who is right? Most of Aman (Israeli military intelligence) is convinced that a major war will not break out so both sides are wrong. War will certainly break out after the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program and Israel will without a shred of a doubt win albeit at a heavy price with thousands of Israeli civilians dead from projectiles, potentially tens of thousands of Israeli civilians dead from chemical weapons and hundreds and even thousands of Israeli soldiers dead in Syria and Lebanon.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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