How Iran is Instigating War

Why would Iran want a war in the Levant now? This is an excellent question that requires some elaboration. Iran is moderately convinced that Israel and America are deterred by Iranian weapons of mass destruction and will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. However, Tehran is less certain when it comes to Israel and apparently has a program in place to reinforce its power of deterrence. That program is a preemptive war meant to deter Israel from ever destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program. The idea for Lebanon to suddenly claim the Karish gas field was obviously concocted by Iranian strategic planners so as to invent a casus belli for instigating a war between Israel and Hezbollah through the latter attacking Karish once Israel starts pumping gas from this gas field. Yet, according to Israel’s Octopus doctrine will a conflict between Hezbollah and Israel lead to direct war between Israel and Iran. What kind of war is Iran planning against Israel? Are they planning to destroy Israel with chemical weapons or are they just planning another round of conflict? This is a good question. Israel at this point does not want a northern war because it does not want to reveal the existence of Median Judaism to the public prior to the likely electoral defeat of the Erdogan regime in June 2023. A northern war would involve the establishment of an indigenous Aramean Christan state as the successor state of Lebanon and the PYD becoming the new government in Damascus as well as Israel annexing Median Jewish (Druze and Alawite) regions of Syria and Lebanon. This is militarily and politically feasible but would be impractical prior to revealing the existence of Median Jewry to the general public which in turn would not be politically advisable as long as Erdogan remains in power. Iran of course knows this and so Israel is in a bind. Iran wants war at this point and Israel does not. Could then not Israel back down and refrain from sending gas from Karish to Israel? Well, even if Israel did refrain from doing so, Iran would find some other excuse for Hezbollah attacking Israel and Jerusalem certainly cannot allow a terrorist organization to dictate government policy.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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