The Perceptual Gap

There is a vast perceptual gap between the P5+1 and the Khomeinist regime. The P5+1 talk the language of reconciliation while Tehran hears weakness and uses the time offered to further enrich uranium towards the goal of amassing enough material to produce a nuclear weapon. For Iran are P5+1 useful infidels to be deceived and taken advantage of. Iran does not care about sanctions, Tehran is racing towards the bomb and is apparently unconcerned that Israel will bomb its nuclear weapons program. However, only a no-fly zone will permanently put a stop to the Iranian nuclear weapons program after it has been strategically degraded by Israel as only a no-fly zone will allow air strikes against the Iranian nuclear program on a continual basis. Tehran however views the region and the world from the perspective of an arrogant imperial power about to embark on world conquest. The only explanation for the Iranian arrogance is that Tehran believes that Allah is on its side. 

There is however also another possibility, namely that Iran has prepared a strategic surprise that Israel apparently has not anticipated, likely an attack with chemical weapons against the city of Tel Aviv, Israel’s economic capital. Would Israel respond with a nuclear missile attack against the holy city of Qom in Iran? Tehran likely thinks that Israel would not respond strategically. In my view, there is absolute certainty that Qom would be obliterated in no time, if anything, to deter further such attacks against additional Israeli cities. Israel may not have anticipated an Iranian chemical weapons attack against Tel Aviv but such an attack has a relatively high probability. Tehran would be particularly well-advised to stay away from such WMD schemes or it will lose Qom. This indicates that there is a considerable perceptual gap between Jerusalem and Tehran as well.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization

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