Iran claims that its assault on Israel with rockets, missiles, chemical warheads and drones from Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen will make Israel collapse. Do they actually believe this or is it just propaganda hyperbole? What is clear is that the Israeli home front will suffer immensely as a result of the assault by Iran and its proxies and there is no question that the impact would be far worse, even unbearable ten years from now. The number of wounded, including from chemical weapons attacks, will be such that Israeli hospitals will not be able to treat most wounded. It will be a humanitarian disaster. Yet Iran will strike with weapons of mass destruction against major cities in countries around the world perceived to be pivotal to the ostensible American-Jewish “octopus”, the worldwide Jewish conspiracy to destroy Islam in Islamist imagination.
Iran’s threats should as a rule always be taken seriously. What these threats indicate is that Iran plans to use a vast number of chemical warheads against Israel without fear of Israeli nuclear retaliation against Iran’s clerical capital of Qom and potentially against other major Iranian cities. In other words, the attack against Israel will be genocidal in effect and intent. Nevertheless, chemical weapons are not nearly as devastating as nuclear weapons and Iran will not use biological weapons against Israel since these would not distinguish between Jews and Palestinians and could potentially kill hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.
Israel has for decades deferred attacking the Iranian nuclear weapons program from the air, in of course knowing that Iran plans to attack Israel with chemical weapons in retribution. Iran is not merely planning to deter Israel from further attacks against a rebuilt nuclear weapons program but is planning to paralyze and collapse Israel. This will be the first time since Israel’s 1947-49 War of Independence that the war has been brought to the Israeli home front as Israeli defense doctrine for decades was to quickly transfer the battlefield to enemy territory.
Israeli military intelligence (Aman) seems to have insufficient intelligence data from Iran as the Israeli Home Front Command in late 2021 trained for only 2 000 Hezbollah rocket attacks a day which is improbable in the extreme considering that Hezbollah has 150 000 rockets and missiles and face comprehensive Israeli liberation of Syria and Lebanon in order to eliminate Hezbollah. There is no reason to believe that Hezbollah will not launch a rapid dominance assault on Israel in order to paralyze the Israeli home front. There is generally a tendency in the international community to rationalize irrational Iranian motivations and minimize the Iranian threat and this mistaken tendency unfortunately exists in the Israeli intelligence community as well.
Israel has not yet explained to the Israeli public that Hezbollah will use rockets and missiles with chemical warheads and is delaying this explanation so as not to cause hysteria that may lead to emigration from Israel. Iran is no doubt planning a Muslim uprising in sovereign Israel at far larger dimensions than during the Gaza war of May 2021. Israel will face a very difficult situation and if Hamas uses the same strategy of unleashing its entire arsenal of rockets and missiles against Israel as Israel is unlikely to liberate Gaza. There is no question that the upcoming war will be the most difficult since the 1947-49 War of Independence and the casualty rate may turn out higher than in any previous war Israel has participated in. Yet of course, Israel is not the only country that will suffer Iranian WMD attacks in retribution for the joint American-Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program.