Why is America not admitting Ukraine to NATO and putting an end to the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine? The US should militarily deter Russia from invading Ukraine yet it is the US that has ended up deterred by Russia. The Biden administration wields the threat of economic sanctions against Russia despite President Biden himself admitting that it won’t prevent Russia from invading Ukraine. So why deploy a deterrence policy which even the commander-in-chief acknowledges will not be effective? The general problem is that America’s adversaries do not fear the Biden administration. Iran does not fear America and therefore proceeds apace with its nuclear weapons program; Russia does not fear America and is therefore preparing to invade, conquer and annex the entire Ukraine; China does not fear America and is preparing to invade Taiwan and who knows what other neighbors and the same may be true of North Korea which might decide to attack and conquer South Korea due to the perception that President Biden is “weak”.
The collapse in America’s deterrence posture worldwide has severe implications for America’s friends, partners and allies around the world. Iran intends to attempt to destroy Israel with massive use of chemical weapons against Israeli cities after the joint American-Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran does not fear Israel’s nuclear deterrence since Tehran believes that Israel cannot use their nuclear weapons without a green light from Washington and Iran is convinced that such a green light is not forthcoming. Iran does not believe in the Israeli-American threat to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and is convinced that the emerging coalition that will impose a no-fly zone over Iran and provide air support to armed rebellions throughout the country is a complete bluff solely intended to compel Iran to return to the JCPOA, something which Tehran is entirely uninterested in.
The Biden administration’s stated goal is to win the competition with the rival imperialist powers, yet the American global commonwealth is approaching something that could be described as the beginning of a collapse. America is willing to sacrifice Ukraine, an emerging democracy, so as to avoid war with Russia. The White House has bought into the Russian psychological warfare trope according to which NATO accession for Ukraine would ignite a war between Russia and NATO when in fact the opposite is true as Ukrainian NATO membership is the only thing that can prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Taiwan of course is next since no one – including China – believes that the Biden administration will intervene militarily to defend liberal-democratic Taiwan from a Chinese invasion and conquest. A North Korean strategic attack on South Korea may follow. What we are witnessing is an Anti-American domino effect where the global collapse in American deterrence may lead one American adversary after the other to attack America’s friends, partners and allies. Russian president Vladimir Putin may conclude that what he views as ‘the American paper tiger’ is all bark and no bite and that the US will therefore not substantially come to the aid of European NATO allies in the event that Russia would attack European members of NATO. This may quite plausible cause Putin to order an invasion of the European Union.
It is essential to understand Russia’s policy of undermining democracies through large-scale disinformation campaigns and promotion of both leftwing and rightwing domestic extremists in democracies. Putin views democracy as a strategic threat and is determined to destroy it. This is so as liberal democracy is the common denominator of Putin’s NATO adversaries. Putin attempts to destroy democracies as a prelude to taking over them. He learned his playbook from the Nazis as Nazi German intelligence was very active in undermining states that Hitler intended to conquer. This of course is not an attempt of mine to ideologically compare Putin with Hitler but Putin uses post-WWII Soviet propaganda and subversion techniques which were modeled on those of Nazi Germany in the 1930s and its imperialist project to control other sovereign states.
America finds itself in the most dangerous situation since the American Civil War as Tehran is convinced that Iran lashing out with chemical weapons against major American cities will strategically speaking only result in America disengaging from Islamdom. The US government does not appear to have a strategy for restoring global deterrence as the destruction of American deterrence worldwide is entirely self-inflicted as caused by official US policies perceived as “weak” by America’s strategic adversaries. The US government needs to wake up to the dangerous situation which America finds itself in as Iran could in principle decide to launch a series of preemptive chemical weapons terrorist attacks against major American cities even before the Iranian nuclear weapons program is destroyed. The US government needs to transition into crisis mode as there is an urgent need for crisis awareness. The US must at almost any price act so as to prevent being perceived as “weak” considering the immense threats against America and its friends, partners and allies around the world. The US government is keenly aware of being perceived as “weak”, yet continues to reinforce that very perception through counterproductive US policies. The US government urgently needs to change its path and it needs to start by preventing war by urgently admitting Ukraine to full membership in NATO.