The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East

Why are Finland and Sweden suddenly applying for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? They understand the simple truth that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would never have occurred had Ukraine already been a member of NATO. NATO is not primarily an organization for waging war but above all an organization for preventing war and has successfully kept the peace in Europe ever since its inception in 1949.

For Iran, conquering Israel and Saudi Arabia is strategically absolutely pivotal. This is not only because conquering the oil resources of GCC nations will transform Iran into a superpower but because the three Islamic messianic figures, the Mahdi (identified by Twelvers with the Hidden Imam), Jesus and the Dajjal are expected to appear in Mecca, Damascus and Jerusalem respectively; hence Iran is focusing like a laser beam on taking control over the Twelver eschatological region in the Middle East. However in order to make the Hidden Imam appear in Mecca do the theo-strategists in Tehran believe that they must organize a veritable apocalypse replete with mass biological and chemical weapons terrorists attacks against major cities in nations deemed central to the ostensible American Jewish global conspiracy to destroy Islam.

Imagine if US defense planners had long before foreseen the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the US had preempted the war by inviting Kyiv to join NATO? The war could clearly have been prevented and now the US government has the opportunity to prevent another major war, this time a conflict which severely threatens the American homeland.

It is important to emphasize that the purpose of a US-Saudi defense pact is certainly not for American soldiers to fight on behalf of the KSA but rather to prevent war in the Middle East and most important to protect the American homeland from major calamity. A US-Saudi defense pact would protect regional stability and prevent international mass terrorism. It is absolutely vital to contain Iran and a US-Saudi defense pact would do precisely that.

Oil will be phased out in the coming decades as gasoline and diesel vehicles are replaced by electric vehicles. However this is far from imminent and Iran will move to conquer Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf states long before oil is phased out as conquering GCC nations will transform Iran into a superpower with the ability to extort US allies through oil embargoes. What are Iran’s plans?

Plan A: Iran plans to develop nuclear weapons capability and believes that no one will prevent Tehran from doing so. Iran assumes that the United States will not wage conventional war against Iran once Iran has joined the nuclear club and that the US will therefore not intervene against an Iranian conquest of GCC nations once Tehran has nuclear weapons capability. Furthermore, Iran understands that it will be able to use biological and chemical weapons with impunity once it has nuclear deterrence capability. Biological and chemical terrorism, including against the United States, is central for Iran engineering an apocalypse that will prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in an Iranian-controlled Mecca.

Plan B: If the nuclear option is denied Iran will Iran opt for apocalypse now. The goals will be 1) to compel the US to withdraw from Islamdom by killing hundreds of thousands of American civilians with biological weapons, 2) destroying Israel by means of chemical weapons and taking control over Israel’s nuclear capability and 3) conquering GCC nations; all designed to prompt the Hidden Imam to reappear.

Plan C: If Plan B is prevented by massive US troop deployment in Saudi Arabia prior to an American-Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program will Iran later resort to Plan C which means engineering Shia (Twelver and Zaydi) uprisings in Saudi Arabia and an Iranian invasion of KSA in “defensive” support of those uprisings. If there is a US-Saudi defense pact in place however, can Plan C be preempted.

A US-Saudi defensive pact is not designed to get the US mired in further Middle Eastern wars. On the contrary, it is intended to avoid precisely that by deterring Iran from attacking US allies and protecting American interests.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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