There was a disagreement during the meeting in Israel between President Biden and Prime Minister Lapid on the question of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Prime Minister Lapid insisted that only deterrence would persuade Iran to sign a nuclear agreement while President Biden insisted that diplomacy was still the best way forward. Both are wrong since they both assume that Iran is interested in a nuclear agreement as opposed to playing for time in order to appease Moscow and Beijing and provide de facto international legitimacy for Iran’s nuclear weapons program. While it is true that at present Iran is convinced that the US and Israel are bluffing and have no intention of destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program, if this perception were to change, nothing would change in Iran’s nuclear policy. In fact, Iran is taking no chances and has long been preparing itself for an attack by moving its nuclear program deep underground with the idea being that the nuclear weapons program will be able to withstand a strategic attack.
Why doesn’t Iran want an agreement? Gasoline and diesel vehicles will be phased out in the coming decades, perhaps as soon as the mid 2030s. This affects Iran’s schedule for taking over the GCC states and becoming a superpower. This is the main reason for not rejoining the JCPOA but there are other reasons as well. Iran knows that Donald Trump will return to the White House in January 2025 and so any agreement to return to the JCPOA will thus be promptly abbrograted in 2025. The international business community knows this and thus there will be neither long term international trade relations with Iran nor international investments in Iran during Biden’s remaining two years in power. While game theory suggests that Iran could be bought off for this two-year period, this is not how the ruling mullahs think, they are not interested in losing precious uranium enrichment time in return for a massive infusion of oil revenues. Iranian leaders work according to their own strategic game plan and have simply no interest in being manipulated in this respect or any other by the United States.
Rather the United States government should think about its own national security. How can the US government safeguard the American homeland so that Iranian terrorist cells do not attack major American cities with biological weapons after America and Israel destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program? The one thing that would do the most to safeguard American national security would be a USA-KSA defense pact. This is so as the theo-strategists in Tehran and Qom assume that Iran must be in control over Saudi Arabia when the Hidden Imam appears in Mecca. Furthermore, one million US troops stationed in Saudi Arabia prior to the attack on the Iranian nuclear weapons program could very effectively deter Iran from launching its apocalyptic Plan B. The present Iranian WMD threat against the American homeland is very serious indeed, far more than the Iranian WMD threat against Israel. This is so because Iran would use biological weapons against the US but would merely use chemical weapons against Israel in order to not harm the Palestinians.
This is the time to shatter illusions and instead commence building an international coalition against Iran. The Iranian threat is most severe indeed and must be preempted so entertaining illusions is not very helpful to put things mildly.