The US and Israel are both Wrong on Iran Diplomacy

Washington still clings to the illusion that Tehran is interested in returning to the JCPOA and would ultimately do so. Jerusalem clings to a similar illusion in believing that it is possible to deter Iran in claiming that if Tehran was presented with a credible military deterrence that would threaten its survival (i.e. a no-fly zone with air support to insurgents), then Iran would back down and dismantle its nuclear weapons program through a genuine and sincere, completely different nuclear agreement. Both approaches are completely naive about Iran’s religio-political motivations and simply do not understand the ruling mullahs.

Yes, the United States needs to adopt a regime change policy on Iran and a no-fly zone should be imposed prior to the joint American-Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. The question at hand really is who deters whom? Should the United States wait until Iran attacks the American homeland with biological weapons before it imposes a no-fly zone? This is a struggle of will to power, who is most strong-willed? Being compliant and acting meekly makes bad deterrence and invites biological mass terrorist attacks against the American homeland, being aggressive and strong-willed in contrast makes good deterrence in the Middle East. The challenge at hand is protecting the American homeland from biological weapons mass terrorism against major American cities and the current failed US policy in addition to completely misunderstanding the regime’s diplomatic and strategic intentions certainly sends the wrong message to Tehran.

The single thing that the US government could do immediately to restore American deterrence vis-a-vis Iran would be to articulate a policy of regime change on Iran. This however is not enough as the mullahs do not believe that a no-fly zone with air support to insurgents would threaten the regime. If they believed so their current planning and priorities would be completely different.

What is the strategic thinking of the ruling mullahs? They understand that Iran due to the development of electric vehicles (EV) is on the path to inevitable decline as a great power unless it breaks out as a nuclear power and conquers Islamdom as beginning with the Mahdist apocalyptic region (Arabia and the Fertile Crescent) with its immense oil resources. They must do so while the oil still flows as it will be too late afterwards considering that Iran would be dependent on conquered Gulf oil to fund a military machine of conquest.

What is the timeline for electric vehicles becoming affordable to the average man? No one knows of course as this depends on the pace of technological developments. This might take longer than expected but it could also happen faster than anyone currently imagines due to groundbreaking technological breakthroughs. 

However, the Iranian regime for various strategic reasons needs a nuclear arsenal before embarking on regional conquest. Iran’s nuclear breakout is thus the critical turning point where Iran commences becoming a superpower which the United States would not dare to engage in conventional warfare, neither in Arabia, in Iran itself nor for that matter anywhere else.

What happens if the nuclear weapons program is destroyed by America and Israel? Then Iran would face a choice between having its nuclear weapons program destroyed every four year or so in a cycle of no nuclear hope in sight for the mullahs or instead opt for apocalypse now, destroy Israel with chemical weapons, take control over its nuclear arsenal and kill millions of Americans with biological weapons while conquering GCC nations. There is no hope in waiting for the inevitable decline inherent for Iran in the development of EV.  

What is the raison d’être of the Khomeinist regime? To bring back Hidden Imam. Iran in the mind of the ruling mullahs has a unique chance in catapulting the world to the messianic era and to bring about global Khomeinist rule. This can be done with or without nuclear weapons. Iran believes that it is currently deterring America and Israel from destroying its nuclear weapons program and is convinced that similar to North Korea before, it will be allowed to develop nuclear weapons without problem. Why do they make that assessment? Because the mullahs assume with tremendous confidence that the US government wants to avoid the death of millions of Americans through biological weapons mass terrorist attacks against major American cities at literally any price. Furthermore, the mullahs presume with similarly strong confidence that Israel desperately wants to stave off a confrontation with the Islamic Republic that Tehran believes will lead to the demise of the Jewish state after Hezbollah massively attacks Israel with chemical weapons and that Jerusalem therefore is ready to accept Iran becoming a nuclear power.

The international community is delusional about Iran which is much more dangerous than they currently imagine. Iran cannot be appeased as Washington desperately wants to believe or deterred as Jerusalem desperately wants to believe. The only solution is regime change through the imposition of a no-fly zone with air support to insurgents. The threat to open society is tremendous. The international community needs to shed its illusions and the US government needs to change policy to a regime change paradigm.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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