The term “conceptzia” (literally “conception”) in Israeli military history refers to the overarching Israeli strategic misconception about Israel’s enemies on the eve of the 1973 Yom Kippur War that they were weak and would not dare to attack Israel.
For years have Israeli strategists been hostages to another “conceptzia” about the Jihadist terrorists on Israel’s borders, namely that they could be “deterred” and “contained”. In reality Hamas, Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) used the lull to build up their stockpiles of projectiles which are posing an increasingly severe threat against Israel all the while the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) has essentially been doing nothing to prevent the buildup as the projectile stockpiles are stored underground throughout vast tunnel networks. The three Jihadist terrorist organizations are ready for a concerted major assault on Israel following Israel’s destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program in late 2022 or early 2023. They are neither contained nor deterred.
Is the IDF ready to make the transition from conceptzia to victory? Is the IDF ready to make the leap? Or more precisely, is the Israeli government who are the actual decision makers (they typically make decisions upon recommendations from the IDF) ready to make a clean break from the lethargy of many years past?
A joint IDF-SDF campaign in Lebanon and Syria represents a unique opportunity to remake Israel’s strategic environment by establishing an Aramean Christian state (Aram), annexing Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon and letting an AANES-ruled Syria annex the remainder of Lebanon. The SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces), the army of the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) would liberate Syria with IAF (Israeli Air Force) air support.
Is it not risky? Not particularly. Israel has invaded Lebanon before and this time there is a clear map for remaking the region. The main weakness of the plan is that the SDF currently lacks heavy weapons although that to a large degree will be compensated for by IAF air support. The SDF are loyal US allies who were partially abandoned by the Trump administration and the US should reinforce that alliance by arming the SDF with heavy weapons, particularly tanks and artillery.