Israel will destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and the attack will likely take place in 2023. The attack would have to be repeated after less than two years and then after less than two years again. These regular attacks would go on indefinitely with intervals of less than two years so as to prevent the Iranian regime from ever developing nuclear weapons. However, this would not be so much of a problem were it not for the fact that Iran will retaliate against Israel and would do so in order to deter Israel from further preemptive attacks against the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
Israel cannot tolerate to be the subject of overwhelmingly massive projectile barrages against urban civilian Israel with regular intervals of less than two years and therefore have no choice but to obliterate Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) down to killing every last Jihadist terrorist. Hezbollah’s projectiles will include those with chemical warheads as intended to cause multiple Halabjas in urban civilian Israel. The message is clear from Tehran. Target our nuclear weapons program and we will target your cities with chemical weapons. Even after Israel destroys Hezbollah, Hamas and PIJ will the chemical missile threat remain as Iran will be able to target Israeli cities with longer-range missiles with chemical warheads as deployed in Iran. Every preemptive Israeli attack against the Iranian nuclear weapons program would see Iranian chemical weapons counter-attacks against urban civilian Israel.
Except of course that Israel cannot tolerate chemical weapons attacks against its civilian cities. This is one of the reasons why Israel has nuclear weapons, namely to defend the Jewish people against genocidal designs. Israel would effectively have no choice but to use nuclear weapons against Iranian cities beginning with Iran’s clerical capital of Qom to deter further chemical weapons attacks against urban civilian Israel. Would Israel succeed this way in establishing nuclear deterrence vis-a-vis Iran? This is questionable, but Israel nevertheless has no choice in the matter.
It is not in the national interest of the United States to see a cycle of wars between Iran and Israel in the Middle East involving weapons of mass destruction with intervals of less than two years. Yet, of course the US cannot tell its Israeli ally not defend itself against what is an existential threat, namely the official Iranian intention to in Khamenei’s own words “annihilate Israel” with nuclear weapons. Israel cannot allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons because Israel’s very physical survival as a nation is at stake and this is true irrespective of the price it will have to pay in order to survive or how many millions of Iranian who will sadly have to die from Israeli nuclear retribution against Iranian/Hezbollah chemical weapons attacks.
Iran agreed to the JCPOA with the P5+1 in 2015 in order to lift the UN sanctions against the country. This was an exceptional instance where Iran agreed to be a signatory to an agreement together with the United States, a country which Iran considers to be the main player in a worldwide Jewish conspiracy. Iran is however highly unlikely to ever enter an agreement with the US again, especially after the Trump administration left the JCPOA. Iran is very well aware of the political reality that the next Republican administration in Washington will leave any agreement with Iran and reimpose comprehensive economic sanctions against Iran. The JCPOA is effectively dead and there are no prospects for any post-JCPOA nuclear agreement either as Iran is determined to move ahead with its nuclear weapons program in order to develop nuclear weapons, achieve hegemony in the Middle East and eventually superpower status once it has gained control over the oil resources of the Gulf countries. Israel of course is determined to prevent this from happening and hence the Saudi-Israeli alliance. Iran will continue to play for time so as to avoid the international community restoring UN sanctions against it and may even from time to time pretend to “negotiate” in order to buy time. This is likely to continue until Israel destroys the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
Israel’s destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program as likely to take place in 2023 is effectively inevitable and war with weapons of mass destruction between Iran and Israel is all but assured. The only way to prevent cyclical wars between Iran and Israel with intervals of less than two years is for the US to impose a permanent no-fly zone over Iran. This will allow the US to intermittently target Iranian nuclear installations as of need without necessitating major war and the Iranian nuclear weapons program will never be allowed to recover. A no-fly zone will encourage regional armed rebellions with US air support in Iran’s ethnic periphery which also contains most of Iran’s oil resources. This will lead to the establishment of a long series of KRG-style pro-American liberated autonomous regional governments de facto independent from Tehran. This will also allow the country’s 2-3 million Median Jews (mostly Yarsanis) to emigrate to Israel which is an important humanitarian concern and is something that will crucially strengthen Israel and demographically help resolve the Palestinian issue as Israel with sufficient Jewish demographic power will be able to redeem and enfranchise the entire Judea and Samaria with Jordan subsequently being happy to annex Gaza. Iran losing its ethnic periphery (including Iranian Balochistan) means that the US will be able to impose a naval blockade on Iran at the Hormuz strait in effectively economically choking the regime.
The imposition of a permanent no-fly zone over Iran means that the Iranian nuclear weapons program will never be able to recover again and thus dooming Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions. Iran will lose control over half its population and most of its oil resources, thus severely weakening the regime and reducing Iran to Persia. A no-fly zone means the end of Iran’s dream of regional hegemony and superpower status. A no-fly zone is an effective containment policy against Iran and although armed rebellions with US air support in Persian Iran would be desirable as well, this is less likely to happen although not entirely impossible.
A nuclear Iran would be a strategic threat against vital US national security interests. While it makes sense for the US to outsource as much as possible to its allies, including to Israel with respect to the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program as likely to take place in 2023 – a permanent no-fly zone must be imposed and maintained by the United States. Iran intends not only to achieve regional hegemony but also global superpower status and Iran’s ambitions constitute an intolerable threat to the rival vital national security interests of the United States. America simply cannot allow other countries to achieve superpower status. What is necessary therefore is a strategic containment policy through a permanent US no-fly zone over Iran that will prevent the Iranian nuclear weapons program from ever recovering and will permanently prevent Iran’s ambitions for regional hegemony and global superpower status.