Imposing a No-Fly Zone over Iran

President Joe Biden continues the Trump administration policy of disengaging from Islamdom and outsourcing its superpower responsibilities to Israel by promoting Israeli normalization with nations of Islamdom. The US is engaged in intensive diplomatic efforts to persuade nations of Islamdom to normalize relations with Israel. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has already in principle agreed to the US request for the KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) to normalize relations with Israel and what is left apparently is to negotiate the list of diplomatic requests the KSA have made from the US. 

The US is unlikely to impose a no-fly zone on Iran as a coalition of Israel and nations of Islamdom are able to do so themselves. Iran is a threat to many nations of Islamdom and a substantial number of nations can therefore be expected to join the coalition against Iran as led by Israel and the KSA. For the KSA is the Iranian nuclear weapons program an existential threat as Iran intends to use nuclear weapons against not only Israel but against the KSA as well. 

An Israeli preemptive strike against the Iranian nuclear weapons program should not be expected until the earliest in the summer of 2023 after the elections in Turkey. What is likely to happen is that the Anti-Iran coalition first imposes a no-fly zone over Iran and that Israel subsequently destroys the Iranian nuclear weapons program from the air. Once there is an international no-fly zone in place over Iran will the peoples of Iran’s ethnic periphery stage armed rebellions with international air support. Iran will thus lose control over up to half its population as the minorities will establish self-governing KRG-style autonomous governments de facto independent from Tehran. Will the Persians also rise in armed rebellion against the Iranian regime? The minorities suffer double oppression since they face not only theocratic oppression but also ethnocratic suppression. The Persians are much less likely to revolt since they “only” suffer theocratic oppression and not ethnocratic oppression. However, it would be a mistake to count out the possibility that the Persians too will successfully rise in armed rebellion against the theocratic regime. It might happen and it is a distinct possibility. However, this is much more difficult since it has to happen over a vast geographic area and in many cities throughout Persia. The possibility however should not be excluded. If the Persian do not unseat the regime, an allied naval blockade would have to be established at the Strait of Hormuz to choke the Khomeinist regime. 

Tehran’s fanatical hatred against the indigenous Jewish nation means that it is very difficult to deter Tehran from ordering Hezbollah to attack Israeli cities with terrorist projectiles (rockets and missiles), some of them equipped with chemical warheads. An Israeli war to liberate Syria and Lebanon in order to destroy the Hezbollah Jihadist terrorist organization is practically speaking an unavoidable consequence of an Israeli attack against the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Israel has to destroy the Hezbollah Jihadist terrorist organization before its terrorist projectiles and chemical weapons evolve into an existential threat against Israel. 

What we can expect in 2023 is therefore a major Middle East conflict. The imposition of the no-fly zone on Iran and subsequent Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear weapons program could happen earlier if Iran makes rapid progress in the process of producing functional nuclear weapons, including nuclear warheads.

2023 will likely be the year when mass Median Jewish mass Aliyah (immigration) to Israel becomes a reality. Israel will annex Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon, establish an Aramean Christian state (Aram) and hand over most of Syria and the remainder of Lebanon to the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) of the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria). Iraqi and Iranian Median Jews will no doubt rapidly immigrate en masse to Israel within the course of a year. Median Jewish Aliyah from Turkey will be massive but Turkey is a relatively developed country and it will therefore take years until all Median Jews in Turkey have left for Israel. This will demographically enable the resolution of the Palestinian issue as Israel when it has received about 10 million Median Jewish immigrants will redeem and enfranchise the entire Judea and Samaria and the Jordanian monarchy will be very happy to annex Gaza which for Jordan is a very attractive coastal area to add to the existing territory of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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