How Imminent is War?

If Israel alone had dictated the timing of the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program had it been determined either by the pace of progress in the Iran’s nuclear weapons program or the date would be after the June 2023 Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections but obviously not earlier than the Israeli project to create a capability to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program is completed which is at the earliest in the fall of 2022. However, the US and Israel have now shared their military plans on Iran with each other and do agree that Israel and America will jointly destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program at some point subsequent to the definite collapse of the JCPOA which is only weeks away. This means that a strategic operation against the Iranian nuclear weapons program will take place earlier than previously expected. 

There are already global diplomatic efforts aimed at building a post-JCPOA international coalition to impose a no-fly zone over Iran, that will provide air support to armed rebellions throughout the country. There is international awareness of the Iranian WMD threat and the Iranian intention to lash out against major cities around the world with chemical weapons in revenge for Israel and America destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program. In order to deter Iran from resorting to weapons of mass destruction against America and its allies on a mass scale, the US-led coalition will need to build up a presence of hundreds of thousands of servicepersons near Iran’s borders. Diplomatically building the international coalition and subsequently building up a presence of hundreds of thousands of servicepersons in Iran’s vicinity will take months but a war will nevertheless take place in 2022.

We should keep in mind that a joint Israeli-American destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program will lead Tehran to order Hezbollah to lash out against Israel with tens of thousands of projectiles (rockets and missiles) some of them fitted with chemical warheads, something which will trigger a wider war between Israel and the AANES (Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria) on the one side and Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Iranian military forces and Iran-supported militias on the other. Israel will establish an Aramean Christian state (Aram), annex Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions in Syria and Lebanon and subsequently hand over most of Syria and the remainder of Lebanon to the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) of the AANES. New borders will be drawn up through a peace treaty between Jerusalem (Israel) and the new governments in Beirut (Aram) and Damascus (Syria).

In addition will the the regional crisis involve armed conflict between Gaza firing terrorist rockets and missiles against Israeli cities and Israel bombing Hamas and PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) targets in Gaza. This however is unlikely to lead to an Israeli reoccupation of Gaza during this particular conflict.

A no-fly zone over Iran is very likely to lead to the downfall of the regime although success of the insurrection in the ethnic periphery (where half of Iran’s population lives) is certain while it is only highly likely in Persian areas. If the insurgency fails in Persian areas and the American and allied deployment of hundreds of thousands of servicepersons near Iran’s borders fails to deter Iran, the conflict would inevitably escalate into an American-led allied invasion of Persia (i.e. what remains of Iran after the ethnic periphery has freed itself) in order to defend the American homeland and the respective homelands of its NATO allies and other America allies from the threat of Iranian mass terrorism with chemical and potentially biological weapons of mass destruction. However, the likelihood that American and allied mass deployment of forces near Iran will succeed in deterring apocalyptic and irrational Iran from using chemical weapons against major cities around the world is absolutely uncertain.

We can expect major, potentially globalized, military conflict in the Middle East during 2022.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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