The view from Jerusalem regarding Iran’s nuclear intentions is rather befuddled. One day we hear that there is little risk that there will be a return to the JCPOA and the next day we hear that such return is imminent and these “assessments” are unwittingly cyclically repeated and so the master manipulators in Tehran must be smiling at being so successful at unnerving their Israeli adversaries. Apparently, Israeli officials don’t even bother to disguise their utter confusion and the failure of Israeli intelligence to appropriately assess Iranian intentions with regard to the nuclear talks. I have however argued all along that the Iranians are merely playing for time in order to legitimize their rapidly advancing nuclear weapons program and that this is rational behavior from their perspective.
The Iranian Plan A is to develop nuclear weapons and then take control over Arabia and the Fertile Crescent and subsequently the entire Islamdom and later the whole world. Iran knows that Israel and America can repeatedly prevent Iran from going nuclear and so Iran can force them and their allies to pay an unbearable price for destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program. This is Iran’s Plan B. Iran plans to destroy Israel with rockets, missiles, drones and chemical weapons and subsequently gain control over Israel’s nuclear arsenal. Iran plans to invade and take control over the GCC nations with their oil fields and the holy cities of Mecca and Medina. Iran plans to attack major American cities with biological weapons and thus deter America from any further involvement in Islamdom. Iran possibly plans to attack major European cities with chemical weapons. This is the terrorist version of a world war; all geared towards prompting the reappearance of the Hidden Imam through a carefully engineered apocalypse. Furthermore, there would be a major war in the northern Levant with Israel liberating Syria and Lebanon after Hezbollah engaged in a frontal assault against Israel. Israel would annex Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions of Syria and Lebanon, establish an indigenous Aramean state in parts of Lebanon and hand over power in Damascus to the PYD (Democratic Union Party). The US has the means for unseating the Iranian regime as a no-fly zone with air support to insurgents is quite certain to bring down the regime. In the worst case scenario will America have to liberate Iran through land war.
This war may lead to tens of thousands of civilian casualties in Israel and so the question of course is whether Israel wants this war in Syria and Lebanon? The first answer is no, the second answer is that Jerusalem recognizes that this war is inevitable and therefore must be won with all war aims attained, the third answer is that the Israelis are certainly looking forward to winning this war despite the horrendous price to be paid for all sides. Why is it inevitable? Both sides (Israel and the Iranian axis in the Levant) are convinced that they will utterly vanquish the other side in this conflict and establish a new regional order. It is not an understatement to say that Israel has mixed feelings about this, similar indeed to feelings held by Zionist military commanders in 1947 and Israeli military commanders in 1967. Even if there would be a return to the JCPOA, a conflict would still be inevitable in the future. Iran is for now sticking to its Plan A but is ready to implement its Plan B after Plan A is thwarted.
Some in Israel argue that deferring the conflict through a return to the JCPOA is in Israel’s interest but the fact is that the balance of power in the region is over time shifting in Iran’s favor as the Iranian axis is entrenched across the region. The problem from Iran’s perspective however is that time is no longer on Iran’s side as the technological clock is ticking on phasing out vehicles driven by gasoline and diesel and replacing them by electrically powered vehicles and so the end of Khomeinist Iran’s great power period in Islamdom is inevitable unless Iran uses the time wisely to conquer the GCC with its oil fields and establishes Iran as an oil superpower in order to conquer the rest of Islamdom. The time factor therefore requires Iran to break out as a nuclear power as soon as possible because it takes years to build a nuclear arsenal. Besides, what benefit is there really for Iran in returning to the JCPOA when a Republican president will rescind any agreement shortly after coming to power in early 2025? Who will invest in Iran or form serious trade links with Iran under such circumstances? Yes, Iran would gain huge oil revenues for two years but it would lose two years for its nuclear weapons program. President Biden no doubt believes that he can buy Iran off with oil revenues but Ayatollah Khamenei appears to disagree.