Iran is Undeterred

Israel does not yet have a military capability to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and will not have one for about a year or so and the US still does not have a Plan B. So currently the Iranians are not worried. However, no one should be surprised that Iran is undeterred. The lack of coordination between the US and Israel is simply astounding. Is the Israeli lack of trust in the US justified? If one is to believe the current official US rhetoric has the Malley doctrine (support for endless negotiations so as to appease Iran into not attacking America with chemical weapons) been replaced by the Blinken doctrine (opposition to endless negotiations). But what comes after the JCPOA if “endless negotiations” are out of question? The US has no Plan B, no international credibility and its deterrence is in shambles after nearly a year of failed appeasement. Also, Israel’s deterrence has collapsed as Iran believes that the Biden administration will restrain Israel from nuking Iran’s clerical capital of Qom after Hezbollah attacks Israeli cities with rockets and missiles with chemical warheads.

Iran feels resurgent, believes it is on the ascendance and as usual believes that Allah is on Iran’s side. There are currently no threats against Iran and Tehran therefore feels confident in trashing the JCPOA without too much diplomatic pretense. There is not only the reality that Iran will lash out with chemical weapons against major cities in many countries around the world, including inevitably the United States, but Iran has the doomsday option of biological weapons which it could use against the United States. This is likely the explanation why Iran is successfully deterring the US considering the possibility that the US would be forced to invade Iran to prevent successive waves of attacks with Iranian chemical weapons against the American homeland. Ali Khamenei is in an apocalyptic mood and is intent on confronting nations which he sees as representing the ostensible worldwide Jewish conspiracy, foremost among them the United States, the perceived center of the alleged Jewish conspiracy. 

What will come after the JCPOA? The US does not show its cards if it has any but Israel is deeply distrustful. Israel has no choice but to continue building the international coalition to impose a no-fly zone over Iran while intensively endeavoring to persuade the US to join the coalition. Will the US eventually join the coalition? This is anybody’s guess.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization

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