Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel

There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted.

1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if the Iranian nuclear weapons program is attacked and we would be particularly well-advised to fully believe them.

2. The Iranian regime believes that this war will lead to the destruction of Israel and systematically states so. This implies that Tehran has decided that Hezbollah and the Iranian Axis will use chemical weapons against Israel. Biological weapons would destroy the Palestinians as well so their usage is out of question.

3. Israel will within years have a full-fledged laser-defense system able to shoot down all incoming projectiles. This means that the Iranian Axis has to use its projectile arsenal against Israel before it becomes useless.

4. Iran’s Plan A is to develop nuclear weapons but if the Iranian nuclear weapons program is destroyed, the Khomeinists have determined that this should be construed as a divine sign that they should not wait for developing nuclear weapons but anyway “annihilate” the “infidels” with chemical and biological weapons around the world. This certainly includes Israeli Jews.

5. The ultimate goal of Iran’s geostrategy is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam and install him as the global theocratic ruler according to Khomeinist principles. Destroying the Jews and defeating the ostensible global Jewish conspiracy to destroy Islam as the anticipated followers of the Dajjal (Deceitful Messiah) is a critical part of Khomeinist eschatology.

6. Octogenarian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei wants to see the Hidden Imam reappear within his own lifetime.

7. There is a Twelver Shia theological doctrine of defensive war forbidding offensive war. An American-Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program is thus a unique opportunity that the axis will not miss out on.

8. Tehran strongly wants to create deterrence against a second destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

9. Iran believes that Israel (if not destroyed) and the allied SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) will lose a war in Syria and Lebanon.

10. Hassan Nasrallah will certainly not act contrary to a “request” or “advice” from Tehran.

However, it is important to emphasize that Tehran and Hezbollah are convinced with medium confidence that their WMD deterrence works and that Israel and America therefore will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. There can nevertheless be no doubt that the Iranian Axis is ready to implement their Plan B.

Published by Daniella Bartfeld

Daniella Bartfeld is the founding director of the Aliyah Organization.

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