The Western intelligence community operates on the assumption that Iran is interested in returning to the JCPOA. Yet, no matter how many times this false belief has been discredited by persistent Iranian rejectionism, the Western intelligence community has clung to this patently false belief. If Iran was motivated primarily by economic imperatives then surely not only would it return to the JCPOA, but it would dismantle its nuclear weapons program and normalize relations with the United States. From an economic perspective does it not make sense to drag out negotiations indefinitely but from a nuclear perspective it certainly does.
The basic problem or in Hebrew “conceptzia” (monumental strategic error) is the assumption that the Iranians are strategically rational. This belief is virtually universally shared by Iran experts around the world. A more correct reading would be to assess that Iran is tactically highly rational but strategically partly insane. Why is this so? Because Iran’s strategy is premised on the Khomeinist official Iranian ideology of Mahdism for which Iranian statecraft is only a tool to prepare for the return of the Hidden Imam.
I have been warning for the past year that Iran has no interest whatsoever in returning to the JCPOA as refusing to do so makes perfect sense if you recognize that the Islamic Republic of Iran is merely a tool for bringing about the reappearance of the Hidden Imam.
Iran’s strategic calculus is part rational geostrategy and part apocalyptic eschatology and Anti-Semitic reasoning. It is essential to recognize and internalize that it was not Donald Trump, but rather Elon Musk who changed the Iranian calculus on the JCPOA. Khomeinist Iran is focused like a laser beam on taking over the Mahdist apocalyptic region (Arabia and the Fertile Crescent) where the cities of Damascus, Jerusalem and Mecca are located, wherein Jesus, the Dajjal (the Deceitful Messiah) and the Mahdi (the Hidden Imam) are slated to appear. The rapid development of electric vehicles means that the strategic window of opportunity for Iran has considerably narrowed. This is because Iran relies on the economic power of conquered Arabian oil to take subjugate Islamdom and extort the rest of the world. This is part of Iran’s rational considerations.
It is highly peculiar indeed that both Israel and the United States insist on waiting until the very last moment to launch a strategic attack against the Iranian nuclear weapons program thus increasing the risks. This reasoning is based on strategic confusion whereby the United States will negotiate until the very last moment and Israel assumes that waiting until the very last moment will maximize international diplomatic support. The US should use the precious diplomatic time to ostracize the Khomeinist regime from the international community, build an international coalition against Iran and restore trust with its Arab allies. Tehran is skillfully manipulating Washington, Jerusalem and the rest of the international community. Washington needs to recognize and internalize that Iran has no interest in any nuclear agreement whatsoever for reasons which make perfect sense from a neo-imperialist Mahdist perspective.