The US suffers from a global credibility deficit. America’s adversaries no longer fear the United States and Middle Eastern allies of the United States are all convinced that the US intends to disengage from Islamdom, yet the US denies this. Iran calculates that in the event of the US and Israel destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program, Iran subsequently attacking America with chemical and even biological weapons will prompt the United States to disengage from Islamdom. This is derived from the unanimous assessment among governments in the region that the US anyway intends to disengage from Islamdom.
A US disengagement from Islamdom and devolving much of its superpower duties there to Israel as combined with normalization between Israel and Muslim nations serves the US national interest as US interests will be protected but America will not be seen as overtly involved in Islamdom as its actual involvement will be under the radar. America is overstretched and needs to encourage its allies around the world to take more responsibility for collective security and increase defense spending so that America can focus on the Chinese threat. It is essential that the peoples of Islamdom which currently undergo digital secularization come to view America as an aspirational model for democracy, liberalism and prosperity for their own societies and as long as the US is seen as meddling in the affairs of Islamdom will the US reputation remain tainted in Islamdom.
The basic equation between Israel and the US should be that Israel defends, protects and promotes American interests in Islamdom while America defends, protects and promotes Israeli interests outside of Islamdom. America is overstretched and needs to focus on competing with as well as defending against, encircling and containing China. However, in order to do so must the Iranian threat first be dealt with. The Vienna talks are doomed as there are no prospects for the US reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran. The US and Israel will therefore jointly destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and impose a no-fly zone over Iran that will provide air support to armed rebellions throughout the country. While success is guaranteed for the uprising in the ethnic periphery where half of Iran’s population lives, this is less certain in Persian areas where the Khomeinist regime is supported by a large minority of the population. Iran lashing out with weapons of mass destruction against America and its allies will however inevitably trigger a US invasion of Iran.
US disengagement from Islamdom is neither feasible nor practical without the US devolving much of its superpower duties in Islamdom to Israel. The US however calculates that the disengagement will be deferred until after the Iranian issue has been dealt with. This is a mistake as that creates mistrust towards the United States and therefore delays Muslim normalization with Israel. It is a supreme US national interest that US allies around the world take more responsibility for their collective security and that those able to develop the capacity for collectively defending themselves – without deployment of hundreds of thousands of US troops – do so. The US must focus on building up alliance systems that will encircle China and deter Beijing from invading its neighbors. The EU would be able to defend itself from Russia if it created a unified confederal military as insisting on having national militaries means that the EU effectively cannot defend itself without massive US participation. This is irrational and unnecessary and the US needs to pressure the EU nations to create a confederal military. Why should the US invest in and divert resources for preparing to defend Europe when the EU could do so itself if merged its national militaries?
Russia has grandiose imperial plans of not only restoring the Czarist/Soviet empire but also of conquering Europe and reaching the Indian Ocean. This of course is megalomania but Middle Eastern nations need to prepare to develop the collective capacity for defending themselves against Russian expansionism in a post-Khomeinist future. Once the Iranian threat is gone will Russia seek to increase its footprint in the Middle East with the ultimate goal of reaching the Indian Ocean. Massive militarization will be required and a Middle Eastern defense alliance will need to be created at some point. Massive changes in the Middle East lie ahead. Erdogan will almost inevitably lose the June 2023 presidential election in Turkey where power is concentrated in the hands of the president. It will be very difficult although not necessarily impossible to deter Iran from lashing against America and allies with weapons of mass destruction which means that an American invasion of Iran is probably inevitable should the insurrection fail in Persian areas of Iran despite extensive international air support as part of the no-fly zone. The Palestinian issue will de facto be resolved by Israel reordering the northern Levant and redeeming and enfranchising the entire Judea and Samaria once a critical mass of Median Jewish immigrants has arrived in Israel and the Jordanian monarchy will subsequently be extremely pleased to annex Gaza. Palestinians will be enfranchised wherever they live throughout the Levant. Saudi Arabia will have no choice but to launch a ground invasion of Yemen to destroy the Houthis and reunify Yemen.
In other words, massive political changes lie ahead in the Middle East with all forces of Islamism defeated. Middle Eastern nations will need to band together under Israeli military leadership to defend the region from Russian imperialism. It would of course be much preferable if the Middle East developed an integrated military capacity to deter the Russian imperialist threat so that the US will not need to fight a war against Russia in the Middle East. The inevitable end of the era of oil means a considerably weakened Middle East which will need to focus on developing a Middle Eastern common market in order to boost their economies.
It is essential that the US strategically prepares for a post-Islamist future in the Middle East. Normalization between Israel and Muslim nations are essential for the nations of the Middle East developing structures of collective security and the US claiming to not want to disengage from Islamdom creates fears and suspicions among Middle Eastern governments which might even prompt some to provide footholds to China and even to Russia. At present, Middle Eastern nations are hedging their bets due to the uncertainty caused by the US policy of denying its intention to disengage from Islamdom. The fear that the US will withdraw from the Middle East with an Obama-style policy of appeasing Iran as well as empowering Iran instead of Israel leaves governments of Islamdom highly nervous and effectively prevents them from normalizing relations with Israel.
There are two major scenarios for Russian and Chinese intentions. Either Russia and China will seek to divide the continent of Asia between themselves in the style of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact or there will be rivalry between China and Russia as to who will control Islamdom. At this point Russia and China are united in seeking to minimize American power and influence around the world, but how they plan to proceed after marginalizing America is a different question. The world was shocked by Russia’s 2014 invasion and annexation of Crimea and the world is similarly unprepared for Nazi-style wars of conquest by China and Russia in the continent of Asia. Nations that do not want to become Russian and Chinese colonies certainly need to band together with the United States against neo-imperialism.
The US needs to demand from friends, partners and allies around the world that they take greater responsibility for their own collective security and increase their defense spending. America needs to engage in intensive diplomacy to prepare the ground for US-led regional defense alliances in the Asia-Pacific, in Central Asia and yes also in the Middle East. Europe needs to become militarily self-sufficient in order to deter Russian westward expansion. The threats are immense and credible deterrence and collective security are essential for preventing colonialism, imperialism and war.