What is the US policy on war and peace in the Middle East? Contrary to the common perception of US policy, the US seeks to weaken Israel so as to maintain Israel in a client position as weak and dependent. The US does not want Israel to emerge as a great power in the regionContinue reading “Calling the US Bluff”
Category Archives: United States
The Evacuation of Rafah
The US has long objected to Israeli plans for the evacuation of civilians from Rafah, including describing some as ”unviable”. In order to act constructively and maintain influence over the Israeli decision-making process, the US government should instead come up with its own ”viable” plan for the evacuation of civilians from Rafah and propose thisContinue reading “The Evacuation of Rafah”
Rebuttal of Senator Schumer’s Biden Surrogate Speech
Let’s be clear, I have no ideological problem with a Palestinian state next to Israel. However, creating a Palestinian state either through consent or coercion just is not possible and it is not desirable for either side for reasons that I will elaborate below. Israel experimented with creating a Palestinian state in Gaza and weContinue reading “Rebuttal of Senator Schumer’s Biden Surrogate Speech”
Israeli Victory is an American Interest
The US generally supports Israel in its wars but as a rule seek to prevent Israeli victory. This has been a general pattern since 1973. This is rather strange since Israeli victory is conducive to peaceful outcomes. The US needs to reassess its own unproductive behavior which perpetuates instability. Yes, it is true that RafahContinue reading “Israeli Victory is an American Interest”
A Shorter Intensive War or a Longer Less Intensive One?
Recently has the view come out from Washington according to which the Biden administration prefers a less intensive war in Gaza and is pressuring Israel in that direction. But does the White House realize that a less intensive war means a longer war and is that really in the interest of either the United StatesContinue reading “A Shorter Intensive War or a Longer Less Intensive One?”
Israel’s Severe Mistake Must be Corrected
Long before this war I advocated an IAF public war log where for every air strike in Gaza a post with extremely detailed information would be published. Every conceivable information would be provided short of compromising intelligence sources and the IAF itself and its staff. The point is to provide as much information as conceivablyContinue reading “Israel’s Severe Mistake Must be Corrected”
A War to Liberate 8 Million Median Jews
The US government has always wanted to ”resolve” the conflict between Israel and those who seek her destruction. Nowadays is the US focus more on the official panacea than actually ending the conflict. The problem is the following, peace is not and was never was possible with those who seek Israel’s destruction. Peace is inContinue reading “A War to Liberate 8 Million Median Jews”
The Yemeni Red Sea Coastal Plain Needs to be Liberated
The Tihamah Red Sea coastal plain region in Yemen is populated by Sunnis, yet occupied by the Houthi rebels. However, the Houthi Red Sea piracy has become completely intolerable for international shipping and a threat to vital US interests. A US-led international coalition needs to be formed to liberate the Yemeni Tihamah and subsequently handContinue reading “The Yemeni Red Sea Coastal Plain Needs to be Liberated”
The Kurds are Israel’s Partner for Peace
It has long been claimed that the terrorism-inciting Palestinian Authority is Israel’s partner for peace, however today almost no one in the international community believes in such a ”partnership”, despite this so-called ”community” almost universally paying lip service to that very misconception. The truth is rather that the Kurds are Israel’s partner for peace, notContinue reading “The Kurds are Israel’s Partner for Peace”
There Will Never be a Palestinian State
There was once a certain determinism in the international community. The widespread diplomatic recognition of the non-existent ”Palestinian state” over the past decades was to a significant degree driven by the determinist view that the establishment of a Palestinian state was somehow ”inevitable”. This is no longer so as few in the international community nowadaysContinue reading “There Will Never be a Palestinian State”
The Iranian Opposition Needs to Unite
The Iranian opposition in exile can be characterized as being of two types. The first type supports cultural and linguistic hegemony by the Persians, the largest ethnic minority in the country comprising 45% of the population of Iran. The majority of the population is compromised by the other ethnolinguistic minorities in Iran, large and small.Continue reading “The Iranian Opposition Needs to Unite”
Is the Gaza Casualty Rate Really Too High?
The US government has recently with some persistence claimed that ”too many civilians have died in Gaza”, but is that really true? The number of Israeli air strikes is higher than the number of Palestinian casualties which means that the ratio of casualty per strike is less than 1,0. How on Earth can that beContinue reading “Is the Gaza Casualty Rate Really Too High?”
The Biden Administration Does not Understand the MENA Region
The Biden administration is displeased that Prime Minister Netanyahu opposes a reinstatement of the PA in Gaza. First, the US government does not understand that no Arab government is sincerely interested in committing to administering the Gaza Strip prior to the complete pacification of that territory. Second, the PA won’t really be interested in takingContinue reading “The Biden Administration Does not Understand the MENA Region”
America Must not Allow itself to be Deterred by Iran
Iran’s actions and rhetoric recently have all been about desperately trying to deter America in order to save Hamas from destruction at the hands of Israel. What is of vital strategic importance here is that America (a.k.a. ”the Great Satan”) cannot allow itself to be deterred by the Empire of Terrorism. Washington must deter Tehran,Continue reading “America Must not Allow itself to be Deterred by Iran”
Too Early to Decide on Post-War Arrangements
The US government has pushed the Israeli government to come up with an arrangement for the post-war situation in Gaza. Let’s look at the different options: Qatar is an international sponsor of Islamism and Jihadism (including Hamas) and can therefore not be relied on for governing Gaza. The Palestinian Authority is a terrible option consideringContinue reading “Too Early to Decide on Post-War Arrangements”
The Mullahs are Desperate
The strategic plans of the ruling mullahs in Tehran are falling apart due to Hamas’ severe miscalculation. Hamas is a semi-proxy of Iran and although it consults with and receives substantial aid from Tehran, it is not a full proxy like PIJ or Hezbollah. This was on full display during the October 7, 2023 pogrom.Continue reading “The Mullahs are Desperate”
Iran is Bluffing
Iran is desperate over Israel’s response to Hamas’ October 7, 2023; pogrom, the strategy of ”unification of fronts” is falling apart in front of their eyes. Iran’s threats and the present limited conflict on the Israel-Lebanon border is specifically intended to pressure the Biden administration into coercing Israel into a ceasefire as in May 2021.Continue reading “Iran is Bluffing”
Hamas is Going it Alone
It is becoming increasingly apparent that Hamas in launching its genocidal invasion of southern Israel on October 7, 2023, did not act upon instructions from Tehran. After the May 2021 conflict when the US forced Israel to accept a premature ceasefire after only eleven days of hostilities did Hamas calculate that President Biden would actContinue reading “Hamas is Going it Alone”
Assessing Gaza
In May 2021 there was an eleven-day long conflict between Israel and Gaza. The conflict was put an end to very early by US president Joe Biden who pressured Israel into a premature ceasefire. At the time I did not believe that 11 days of pounding terrorist infrastructure was enough to create sufficient deterrence soContinue reading “Assessing Gaza”
Biden Administration Should Stop Wasting Time
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud in a recent interview with Fox News clarified that he expects Israel to ease the lives of the Palestinians. This is a most reasonable demand and should I add a very realistic one. Palestinians in Judea and Samaria suffer greatly under the gruesome bureaucratic apparatus of Israel’s Civil Administration.Continue reading “Biden Administration Should Stop Wasting Time”
Biden Administration Needs to Rethink its Public Strategy on Saudi Deal
The Biden administration has made three mistakes relating to the ongoing negotiations with Saudi diplomats. The first mistake was to presume that Saudi diplomats’ demands for major Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority accurately reflect the personal attitude of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The second mistake was to raise expectations among progressives in CongressContinue reading “Biden Administration Needs to Rethink its Public Strategy on Saudi Deal”
Understanding the ”Ongoing Nakba”
Palestinians ahistorically refer to Israel’s 1947-49 War of Independence as ”the Nakba”. The historical fact is that tens of millions of people were permanently displaced around the world in the 1945-50 period (especially in South Asia and Eastern Europe) of whom less than a million were displaced Palestinian Arabs and less than a million JewsContinue reading “Understanding the ”Ongoing Nakba””
The US Should Use its Leverage over the KRG
The KRG is desperately calling on the US to use its leverage over the Iranian-influenced Iraqi government to promote reconciliation between Erbil and Baghdad. The US however is in no hurry to do so with an anonymous US official reportedly pointing out that the PUK and KDP statelets cannot even integrate between themselves. The USContinue reading “The US Should Use its Leverage over the KRG”
What the ADL Should Tell Elon Musk
Elon Musk has blamed the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) for the 60% decline in advertisement revenues since he took over X (formerly Twitter). While this vastly overstates the influence and reach of the ADL and smacks of Anti-Semitic conspiracy theory, the ADL would be particularly well-advised to use this moment to foment a constructive discussion withContinue reading “What the ADL Should Tell Elon Musk”
Reading a Peculiar Situation
Recently on the same day, North and East Syria (NES) was attacked from two directions. In the Deir ez-Zor region was the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) attacked by pro-regime tribal forces and on the very same day was the SDF attacked in the Manbij region by Islamist militia forces supported by the AKP regime. TheContinue reading “Reading a Peculiar Situation”
The KSA and the USA Need a Grand Deal Far More Than Israel Does
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently told Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer that Israel is misreading the situation if it thinks that it can get the US-Saudi-Israeli deal without significant Israeli concessions to the Palestinian Authority. However, this is not what the Saudis are telling the Israelis. For the USA and theContinue reading “The KSA and the USA Need a Grand Deal Far More Than Israel Does”
It is a US National Security Interest to Strengthen the KRG
Iran’s continued efforts to economically strangle the KRG (Kurdistan Regional Government) by deferring the resumption of oil exports through Turkey constitute a challenge against US interests in the region as Tehran seeks to subordinate the pro-American KRI (Kurdistan Region of Iraq) to Iran’s neo-imperialist agenda. It is essential that Washington exerts strong and sustained pressureContinue reading “It is a US National Security Interest to Strengthen the KRG”
How Israel’s Sovereignty Map will Look Like
How is Israel’s sovereignty map different from the map of the Kushner peace plan? There will be no Israeli enclaves but there will be a number of fairly large Palestinian enclaves connected with other Palestinian enclaves and other Palestinian territory through tunnels. The Palestinian enclaves will be situated on the Western side of the SamariaContinue reading “How Israel’s Sovereignty Map will Look Like”
Pacifying Iran
Victory in the Northern War is critical for preventing the Iran-MENA front of WWIII, the other front being between Russia and NATO in Europe. Israel and Iran imagine completely different outcomes of the Northern War. Iran imagines that the outcome of the Northern War will be the destruction of Israel. Israel in contrast plans toContinue reading “Pacifying Iran”
The Saudis are no Fools
The Biden administration is enthusiastically, albeit extremely naively so, hoping to somehow magically transform the rightwing Likud into the leftwing Meretz by dangling the prospect of normalization with the KSA. The sophisticated MBS-led Saudi government however isn’t exactly stupid, they know that the rightwing Israeli government can only deliver something symbolic. MBS knows perfectly wellContinue reading “The Saudis are no Fools”
Applying Israeli Sovereignty to Parts of Judea and Samaria is Imperative
Nobody knows the outcome of the November 2024 presidential elections in the United States. However, eventually at some point a member of the GOP will become resident of the White House. Hence the question of whether a future Republican president will recognize Israeli sovereignty in parts of Judea and Samaria is an essential one indeed.Continue reading “Applying Israeli Sovereignty to Parts of Judea and Samaria is Imperative”
Staggering American Naivety
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has recently claimed that violence in northern Samaria makes normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia impossible or near impossible. Interestingly, the Saudis are not making demands on the Palestinian issue from the Israelis but from the Americans! The Saudis sense that they have leverage over the Americans on Judea/Samaria issuesContinue reading “Staggering American Naivety”
MBS’ Diplomatic Game
The reality is that America and Israel are absolutely indispensable to Saudi Arabia militarily speaking. The Saudi military could not defeat the Houthis in Yemen and so how could it for all its advanced American weaponry defend itself against Iran? So why is MBS playing the infidelity game with Iran (towards Israel) and with ChinaContinue reading “MBS’ Diplomatic Game”
Deterrence is Incompatible with Appeasement
The Iranian leadership is determined to implement ”Death of America” at some point. They cannot be strategically deterred, only tactically so. This presents a dilemma for the United States government. What is the best means for deferring the destruction of America, appeasement or deterrence? The US government is yet to recognize that Elon Musk andContinue reading “Deterrence is Incompatible with Appeasement”
Where is the Region Heading?
There are two major wars awaiting the Middle East. The first will be the Northern War where the Israeli and Iranian armies will fight it out on Syrian soil and the second will be Iran’s attempt to conquer the MENA region. Israel’s Arab allies intend to take Assad’s side in the Northern War. It isContinue reading “Where is the Region Heading?”
Will Russia Stay Neutral in the Northern War?
Russia has already assured access through Iraqi air space for its own air force. However, the real question is whether Moscow will stay neutral in the upcoming Northern War between Israel and the Iranian Axis? One would think that Putin would be smart enough not to go to war against Israel, considering his present experienceContinue reading “Will Russia Stay Neutral in the Northern War?”
Looking Weak and Confused
The US government has once more ventured onto the hopeless, dangerous and counterproductive route of indirect negotiations with Iran. Time is something that the Iranian regime cannot afford to waste and has therefore no interest whatsoever in concluding even a tactical agreement with ’the Great Satan’. This is so because the continual progression in theContinue reading “Looking Weak and Confused”
US Deterrence Depends on Credibility
One problem with US deterrence vis-a-vis Iran is the ambiguity surrounding the question as to who will take out Iran’s nuclear weapon’s program. If Israel isn’t convinced that America will take part, then who can blame Iran for not believing America? Why is not Israel convinced that America will act militarily to neutralize the IranianContinue reading “US Deterrence Depends on Credibility”
A US Mideast Defense Strategy
Iran remains focused on capturing the MENA region and the current detente whereby Iran seeks to rival Israel’s intended regional integration and furthermore engage in regional intelligence infiltration is a mere phase in Tehran’s great plan for conquering the Arab world. While preparing for the Northern War against Israel, is Iran trying to compete withContinue reading “A US Mideast Defense Strategy”
Open the KRI-NES Border
The border between the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and North and East Syria (NES) has long remained closed due to pressure from Ankara on Erbil. This needs to change. The Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus would be particularly well-advised to use its leverage in Ankara to relieve pressure on Erbil soContinue reading “Open the KRI-NES Border”
Strategic Dialogue is Required
There are certain issues regarding Iran where the US and Israel do not show each other their respective cards. That may likely include the point when they consider it necessary to strike the Iranian nuclear program. They should show each other their cards. Washington and Jerusalem is like a couple who are lying to eachContinue reading “Strategic Dialogue is Required”
A Joint Iran Operation is a Shared US-Israeli Interest
The US is able to deter Iran, i.e. temporarily so, but it has to be sustained over time in order to ensure homeland security from the threat of Iranian biological terrorism against major American cities. The US is right to pursue military integration with Israel as this bolsters US deterrence vis-a-vis Iran. However, this requiresContinue reading “A Joint Iran Operation is a Shared US-Israeli Interest”
Why the USAF Should Participate in the Northern War
There is a strong case for the US Air Force participating on Israel’s side in the Northern War without putting a single boot on the ground. For Israel is the Northern War an existential matter as it is a war of no choice, it will indeed be fought as it is only a matter ofContinue reading “Why the USAF Should Participate in the Northern War”
Iran’s Strategy is Crumbling
Iran believed that Israel and America were weak and ready to be destroyed. Then Iran realized that its perception was wrong and that the Iranian Axis was the one that is weak and ready for destruction. The IDF targeted assassinations of three top PIJ commanders in Gaza literally achieved shock and awe as the IranianContinue reading “Iran’s Strategy is Crumbling”
The Israeli Deep State Needs to Promote a New Rabbinical Consensus on Conversion Reform
The proposal for conversion reform as suggested by the Bennett-Lapid government was insensitive to the very real social concerns of many Diaspora Orthodox rabbis who feared for the very survival of their communities. The apparent concern was that young Orthodox Jews would date and marry non-Jews and then make fictitious Aliyah for the purpose ofContinue reading “The Israeli Deep State Needs to Promote a New Rabbinical Consensus on Conversion Reform”
MENA Regional Integration Will Ensure Peace, Stability, Deterrence and US Homeland Security
MENA regional integration is an important US national interest that will ensure stability in this part of the world and prevent the US from being drawn into a land war with Iran so as to prevent Iran from conquering the Arab world. MENA regional integration is both economic and defense-related. Economic integration is vital toContinue reading “MENA Regional Integration Will Ensure Peace, Stability, Deterrence and US Homeland Security”
The US Must Make a Strategic Decision
The US cannot be everywhere and must prioritize. However, Russia, China and Iran must all be contained separately. The goal must be to prevent war and if this fails – to win war. Regarding Russia must the goal be to defeat Russia, kick it out of Ukraine and then woo it to integrate into theContinue reading “The US Must Make a Strategic Decision”
A Joint Iran Operation is Pivotal for American Deterrence
The first lesson from Ramadan this year is that Israel does not control the pulse in the Levant, Iran does. What is the strategic reality in terms of deterrence? Israel does not believe that Iran will dare use chemical weapons against the Jewish state or Israel would be distributing gas masks, thus Israeli non-conventional deterrenceContinue reading “A Joint Iran Operation is Pivotal for American Deterrence”
Learn From the Past
When Israel under US pressure rerouted the Jerusalem Day Flag Parade it led to war with Hamas in Gaza; whenever the regular route was followed there was no war. Rerouting the Flag Parade is extremely dangerous because it is perceived as a victory for terrorism and as such it encourages terrorism and therefore may leadContinue reading “Learn From the Past”
Religious Zionist Poskim Need to be Initiated Into the Secrets of Esoteric Judaism
The Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus would be particularly well-advised to ask the top Sabbatean religious authorities to initiate Religious Zionist and Modern Orthodox poskim into the full range of secrets of Esoteric Judaism.
Aliyah Organization 