The 28 point plan has its own logic and its hoped-for consequences would appear to be in some ways consistent with American interests. However, this is not so simple as it would appear from the perspective of the current American administration. Washington wants peace at literally any price and does not take European interests intoContinue reading “Avoiding WWIII”
Category Archives: Russia
The Iranian Conundrum
Iran politically resembles a Swiss cheese full of Mossad agents in its cavities both inside the regime and among the opposition. It is no exaggeration to point out that Israel is capable of unleashing a multi-generational popular revolution in Iran. Air strikes against the regime’s political and security infrastructures would undoubtedly trigger a nationwide revolution.Continue reading “The Iranian Conundrum “
Why NATO Military Intervention in Ukraine won’t Lead to WWIII
Why have NATO countries not already militarily intervened in Ukraine? The reason is highly effective Russian strategic deterrence. The blatant fear in the West is that Russia will invade the EU, but that is impossible as long as Russian forces are stuck in Ukraine. As long as the Ukraine war goes on the EU isContinue reading “Why NATO Military Intervention in Ukraine won’t Lead to WWIII”
The US Russia Strategy Doesn’t Work
The US needs a different Russia strategy as the current one simply does not work. Appeasing Russia did not work, rather the effect is that of whetting Russia’s appetite for territorial conquest of the European Union; i.e. WWIII, something which the US must strive to avoid at any and all cost. Rather, the abject USContinue reading “The US Russia Strategy Doesn’t Work”
Existential War
Some wars are not existential, others are. Why is it that NATO does not deter Russia considering Russia’s plans for conquering the European Union? The answer is that the Chinese threat trumps Western defenses. The entire Russia outside of the major cities is thinly populated and thus suitable for Han (Sinitic, ethnically Chinese) colonization. ThisContinue reading “Existential War”
European Forces are Needed to Defend Siberia
The West has for decades since the end of the Cold War mismanaged the Russia file. Early on, Putin wanted Russia to join NATO and the EU but was rebuffed by the Europeans. A Swedish diplomat told me that Russia was ”too big” for EU membership. Obviously, Russian membership in NATO and the EU wouldContinue reading “European Forces are Needed to Defend Siberia”
Europe Must Fully Participate in the Encirclement of China
The world is threatened by WWIII at the hands of Russia and by WWIV at the hands of China. Both conflicts must not only be avoided but sternly prevented by means of robust military force buildup. Russia is well aware of China’s plans for WWIV and does not plan to become a victim. China plansContinue reading “Europe Must Fully Participate in the Encirclement of China”
NATO is not a US Interest
The US should give the European Union an harsh ultimatum. Replace national militaries with a unified European military before the US withdraws from NATO in a few years time. There was a time when NATO well served American interests but this is longer so. Instead, NATO has become a parasitic burden that if the USContinue reading “NATO is not a US Interest”
The NATO Paper Tiger Doesn’t Deter Russia
European defense policy is premised on the outdated notion that NATO somehow deters Russia. NATO does not deter Russia as Russia in fact plans to invade EU countries in the years to come. It is absurd that the European Union with 450 million citizens is threatened by the Russian Federation with 140 million citizens andContinue reading “The NATO Paper Tiger Doesn’t Deter Russia”
It’s All About China Stupid!
For three decades the West mismanaged the Russia file. By expanding NATO and the EU eastwards without considering making Russia a candidate for membership in either organization, the West effectively created a monster in Moscow. The only real threat against Russia does not come from Europe and America but rather from China which in aContinue reading “It’s All About China Stupid!”
Trump Shows Europe the Way
US President Donald Trump is exhibiting some tough parenting skills vis-a-vis Europe. Although the GDP of the European Union at 20 trillion USD is not as large as the GDP of the United States at 29 trillion USD, nevertheless the population of the European Union with 450 million citizens is much larger than that ofContinue reading “Trump Shows Europe the Way”
The Iranian Opposition Needs to Unite
The Iranian opposition in exile can be characterized as being of two types. The first type supports cultural and linguistic hegemony by the Persians, the largest ethnic minority in the country comprising 45% of the population of Iran. The majority of the population is compromised by the other ethnolinguistic minorities in Iran, large and small.Continue reading “The Iranian Opposition Needs to Unite”
Reading a Peculiar Situation
Recently on the same day, North and East Syria (NES) was attacked from two directions. In the Deir ez-Zor region was the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) attacked by pro-regime tribal forces and on the very same day was the SDF attacked in the Manbij region by Islamist militia forces supported by the AKP regime. TheContinue reading “Reading a Peculiar Situation”
Pacifying Iran
Victory in the Northern War is critical for preventing the Iran-MENA front of WWIII, the other front being between Russia and NATO in Europe. Israel and Iran imagine completely different outcomes of the Northern War. Iran imagines that the outcome of the Northern War will be the destruction of Israel. Israel in contrast plans toContinue reading “Pacifying Iran”
An Outline of the Northern War
The government of Israel is highly uninterested in fighting war during this turbulent period in Israeli political history. For Iran and Hezbollah however does it appear to be a perfect time for war. Indeed, the Iranian Axis is itching for war. The long series of provocations along Israel’s northern borders take place precisely because JafariContinue reading “An Outline of the Northern War”
Will Russia Stay Neutral in the Northern War?
Russia has already assured access through Iraqi air space for its own air force. However, the real question is whether Moscow will stay neutral in the upcoming Northern War between Israel and the Iranian Axis? One would think that Putin would be smart enough not to go to war against Israel, considering his present experienceContinue reading “Will Russia Stay Neutral in the Northern War?”
Peculiar?
European governments are unhappy with Russia funding Communists and Nazis in their own countries but they do not seem to understand why Israel is unhappy with Europe funding Anti-Semites in Israel. Whoah? Are European governments and the European Union funding Anti-Semites in Israel? Yes, according to the EU-approved IHRA definition of Anti-Semitism and its 11Continue reading “Peculiar?”
Post-Putin Russia Must be Enticed to Democratize and Liberalize
As Ukraine is preparing for its 2023 Spring Offensive should the Western world already now form a policy for dealing with a defeated post-Putin Russia that has been kicked out of Ukraine. Yes, it appears that Vladimir Putin will not ever admit defeat and withdraw from occupied Ukraine but will fight till the last dropContinue reading “Post-Putin Russia Must be Enticed to Democratize and Liberalize”
The US Must Make a Strategic Decision
The US cannot be everywhere and must prioritize. However, Russia, China and Iran must all be contained separately. The goal must be to prevent war and if this fails – to win war. Regarding Russia must the goal be to defeat Russia, kick it out of Ukraine and then woo it to integrate into theContinue reading “The US Must Make a Strategic Decision”
The Israeli Deep State Must Protect and Promote Aliyah & Giyur
Considering the illiberal leanings of the present Israeli government and its apparent lack of democratic instincts, it is imperative that the Israeli Deep State consistently and timely acts to protect Israel’s liberal character under all circumstances. The impending assault on the Law of Return is specifically not about preventing people with one Jewish grandparent inContinue reading “The Israeli Deep State Must Protect and Promote Aliyah & Giyur “
This Government is a Threat Against Democracy
It has become increasingly clear in recent years that Benjamin Netanyahu who was originally a bona fide defender of liberal democracy has become part of the international trend of elected politicians and political parties who abuse their elected positions to undermine democracy. I write this with some reluctance because Benjamin Netanyahu is a person whomContinue reading “This Government is a Threat Against Democracy”
When is Iran Planning to Attack the American Homeland?
“The Death of America will happen.” Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei Iran assumes that no one will dare neutralize the Iranian nuclear weapons program, but they have a backup response plan for that event which involves destroying Israel. This future conflict is known in Israel as theContinue reading “When is Iran Planning to Attack the American Homeland?”
What is President Biden Afraid Of?
Ukraine has been sufficiently armed to defend itself but not liberate its occupied territories. That’s the painful reality that Ukrainians are facing. Yet, President Biden and many of his European allies are still apparently entertaining some Russian propaganda delusions that sufficiently arming Ukraine would have ”dangerous consequences”. The question is who is deterring whom? CurrentlyContinue reading “What is President Biden Afraid Of?”
Genocide in America
Make no mistake, the United States of America, a.k.a. “The Great Satan” is the main and primary adversary of the Islamic Republic of Iran. “Death to America” is no mere slogan, the Supreme Leader says it will happen. Why is this so? For the same reason why 9/11 happened. Because Islamist ideologues generally are stronglyContinue reading “Genocide in America”
What is Iran’s War Plan?
Khomeinist theologians believe that the destruction of Israel is a precondition for the Hidden Imam to reappear. I.e. as long as Israel exists won’t the Hidden Imam reappear and so is Israel according to this particular theology an obstacle to the emergence of the messianic age. This is why theocratic Iran is so obsessed withContinue reading “What is Iran’s War Plan?”
Inside the Minds of Iranian Strategists
The Khomeinist regime in Tehran has long preferred not to invade other countries and rather rely on proxies to project Iranian power. Iran first and foremost wants to control the Khomeinist Apocalyptic region, the triangle of Mecca, Jerusalem and Damascus. There can be little doubt that the Iranian military will cross Iraq to reach SyriaContinue reading “Inside the Minds of Iranian Strategists”
Nurturing an Israeli-American-Ukrainian Triangular Relationship
Israel generally does not advertise its weapons exports in the media and this is true this time as well with regard to the secret Israeli weapons deliveries that are apparently underway to Ukraine. The general principle of weapons deliveries to Ukraine has been that each country has given to Ukraine from its own weapons storages.Continue reading “Nurturing an Israeli-American-Ukrainian Triangular Relationship”
Building a MENA Defense Alliance Takes Years
Imagine if WWI and WWII could have been foreseen and prevented? Just imagine that for a moment! Now we have the opportunity to prevent WWIII that Russia and Iran are planning for Europe and the MENA region. By preventing WWIII we can also position ourselves to avoid a Chinese-instigated global WWIV. It is absolutely pivotalContinue reading “Building a MENA Defense Alliance Takes Years”
Will Putin be Unseated?
Many Western experts on Russia have suggested that President Putin will be unseated once Russia has lost the war in Ukraine. This is an interesting question because it is typically predicated on the false assumption that this is “Putin’s war” rather than “the GRU’s war”. Vladimir Putin is not a young man at age 70Continue reading “Will Putin be Unseated?”
Iran Must be Deterred and Contained
In light of the new Russo-Iranian Molotov-Ribbentrop pact whereby Russia gets Europe and Iran gets the Arab world, it is necessary for threatened nations to reevaluate their relations with Iran. Saudi-Israeli peace and normalization can happen any day of the week once Washington and Riyadh agree on the terms and then the next step isContinue reading “Iran Must be Deterred and Contained”
The US Needs a Strategy for Preventing an Iranian Land Invasion Through Iraq
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani yesterday warned against Iran using Iraq as a springboard to invade Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The Iraqi parliament last year passed a law proscribing any contacts with Israeli citizens and Israel bodies or visiting Israel and required capital punishment or life in prison for offenders. Not only isContinue reading “The US Needs a Strategy for Preventing an Iranian Land Invasion Through Iraq”
Let’s Hasten Russia’s Defeat
There is no reason to needlessly prolong this tragic war. The war in Ukraine will end with Ukraine retaking all occupied territories no matter how long it takes. The other possible outcome, namely that Russia conquers the entire Ukraine is simply no longer feasible. So why should it take a long time for Ukraine toContinue reading “Let’s Hasten Russia’s Defeat”
The Case for Pax Americana
America has been much demeaned by its detractors including American ones, but the reality is that the United States is the protector of a liberal-democratic community of nations and the global guarantor of peace and security. A so-called multipolar world would be truly dystopian as Iran, Russia and China are planning world wars with tacticalContinue reading “The Case for Pax Americana”
Victory is Practical and Feasible
One of the major objections for holding back on arming Ukraine with more advanced weaponry is that Ukraine’s war goal of liberating all occupied territories is ostensibly “unrealistic”. However, this objection is particularly ridiculous considering the proven track record of the Ukrainian military, including the ability to liberate major territories despite foreign pessimism all along.Continue reading “Victory is Practical and Feasible”
Accelerate the Process of Liberation
One of the most common themes of Russian propaganda is fearmongering with regard to so-called “escalation” despite Moscow itself doing everything possible to escalate the conflict short of using weapons of mass destruction or attacking further nations. Russian propagandists typically claim that Western deliveries of weapons to Ukraine leads to “escalation” although it is unclearContinue reading “Accelerate the Process of Liberation”
Russia and China are Frenemies of Israel
Let’s face reality, Russia has existentially hostile intentions towards Israel in its planned WWIII and China has existentially hostile intentions towards Israel in its planned WWIV. Israel’s interest is to make sure that Moscow and Beijing never turn into enemies and so the key is to prevent world war. Israel needs to balance its policyContinue reading “Russia and China are Frenemies of Israel”
What is the Kurdish Interest in WWIII?
What is the Kurdish interest in terms of the approaching WWIII? It should be noted that WWIII can still be prevented by crushing the Russian war machine in Ukraine. However, how should AANES and KRG maneuver in anticipation of WWIII? It should always be kept in mind that NES and KRI are embryonic Kurdish statesContinue reading “What is the Kurdish Interest in WWIII?”
What is the Extent of the New Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?
“We strongly condemn any provocative efforts that have the potential to provoke an uncontrolled escalation of tensions in a region that’s far from being peaceful as it is. Such destructive actions could have unpredictable consequences for peace and stability in the Middle East. That has to be understood by the organizers of the brazen raid,Continue reading “What is the Extent of the New Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?”
On the Danger of Nuclear War
Russian propaganda would want us to believe that Moscow will resort to nuclear weapons if Russia is defeated and expelled from Ukraine. Of course, as usual Russia disseminates disinformation. The opposite is true. If Russia is defeated in Ukraine and the Russian war machine crushed will Moscow effectively have no choice but to join theContinue reading “On the Danger of Nuclear War”
Drawing Arab Conclusions From the New Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
What conclusions should Arab governments draw from the new apparent Molotov-Ribbentrop pact between Russia and Iran whereby Moscow conquers Europe and Tehran simultaneously conquers the Arab world in a WWIII possibly half a decade from now? Tehran counts on Arab disunity and on an Arab domino effect whereby Iran can pick off one major ArabContinue reading “Drawing Arab Conclusions From the New Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact”
Israel’s Ukrainian Conundrum
What are the reasons for Israel refraining from selling lethal weapons to Ukraine despite it clearly being in the interest of Israel that Russia is defeated and thus WWIII is avoided and China is contained? Because that much is at stake in the Ukraine war. In contrast to this fear-based policy in which Israeli weaponsContinue reading “Israel’s Ukrainian Conundrum”
Algeria Must Prioritize its own National Interests
Algeria is currently bent on not joining the normalization bandwagon. However, the apparent existence of a Russo-Iranian new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact whereby Moscow gets the entire Europe and Tehran gets the entire Arab world should make Algiers rethink its entire approach. Iran is absolutely intent on conquering all Arab countries, including Algeria; and Israel as theContinue reading “Algeria Must Prioritize its own National Interests”
Ukraine Should be Armed for Victory
When Russia invaded Ukraine eleven months ago did no one outside of Ukraine expect that the Ukrainians would be able to withstand the onslaught. However, they did and bravely so. Once the West realized that the Ukrainians were capable of defending themselves was the Western presumption that the West should help Ukraine with defensive capabilitiesContinue reading “Ukraine Should be Armed for Victory”
Russia is Facing Defeat in Ukraine
Russia’s offensive in Ukraine shows no signs of progress and now we once more hear those tired threats of nuclear war. There is also the official Russian rhetoric according to which losing the war in Ukraine would pose an existential threat against Russia. What’s behind all that? The only existential threat against Russia, indeed theContinue reading “Russia is Facing Defeat in Ukraine”
More Than Meets the Eye
Russia plans to deliver a new air force to Iran and Iran is delivering kamikaze drones to Russia. That is what is known about the extent of the military relationship between Iran and Russia which has obviously reached a strategic level. Both nations are militarily adventurous and plan big conquests which they however at thisContinue reading “More Than Meets the Eye”
The Battle Lines Have Been Drawn
It has become clear that behind the mutual arming between Iran and Russia is a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Russia gets the entire Europe and Iran gets the entire Arab world, including Israel. Putin’s decision of course is not motivated by hostility against Israel, it is simply realpolitik. It makes sense to tie up American forcesContinue reading “The Battle Lines Have Been Drawn”
A Nucleus of a Middle Eastern Defense Alliance
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has made three demands from the US for making peace with Israel. Those are 1) a KSA-USA defense treaty, 2) NATO-level deliveries of weaponry and 3) what appears to be a demand to purchase the new small highly cost-effective nuclear power plants that are currently being developed inContinue reading “A Nucleus of a Middle Eastern Defense Alliance”
The New Israeli Government Represents an Opportunity for Peace
The Biden administration often repeats its commitment to resolving the Palestinian issue through an infamously failed formula which was always dead on arrival due to being founded on outright false premises constituting on the American side simply wishful thinking and refusal to learn from recent Israeli history. What is peculiar is that the Biden administrationContinue reading “The New Israeli Government Represents an Opportunity for Peace”
An Opportunity to Renew Confidence with Gulf Allies
After OPEC decided to decrease oil production quotas, the Biden administration determined to conduct a formal reassessment of the US relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. America in effect has no choice but to defend Gulf oil fields against Iran irrespective of what MBS does domestically and internationally and MBS knows it because theContinue reading “An Opportunity to Renew Confidence with Gulf Allies”
US Persian Gulf Strategy Harms American Interests
President Barack Obama’s Middle Eastern strategy of handing over the Muslim world to the Islamists as a means to defuse US-Muslim tensions and ostensibly facilitate so-called “Islamic democracy” which of course the peoples of Iran do enjoy so much (!) has fortunately not been maintained by the Biden administration despite largely being staffed by TeamContinue reading “US Persian Gulf Strategy Harms American Interests”
Aliyah Organization 