The JCPOA is brain-dead and it is only a matter of weeks until it will be fully dead and buried. The reason is that Iran correctly assesses that returning to compliance with the JCPOA and/or reaching a nuclear agreement with the United States are not conducive to the nuclear and economic interests of the KhomeinistContinue reading “Neutrality on Iran is in no One’s Interest”
Tag Archives: Deterrence
Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?
Iran is well aware that it will be attacked but due to its belief in divine patronage does Tehran not believe that any of the insurrections will succeed after the US-led international coalition imposes a no-fly zone over Iran and provides air support to armed rebellions throughout the country. However, this does not mean thatContinue reading “Will Iran Launch a Surprise Assault?”
The Art of Building Deterrence
One year of failed appeasement policy has completely destroyed US deterrence against Iran. The notion that this can be repaired by issuing a few threats is preposterous. Public issuance of threatening statements has its place in a comprehensive deterrence posture but are on their own entirely insufficient in rebuilding America’s deterrence against Iran. Iran shouldContinue reading “The Art of Building Deterrence”
Endless Negotiations are Back on the Table
An interview with US Iran envoy Rob Malley on CNN informs us that the Malley doctrine of endless negotiations is back and the Blinken doctrine of opposition to endless negotiations is dead, or at least so far the moment. Malley, the notorious appeaser of Islamists, is convinced that Iran is advancing its hugely expensive nuclearContinue reading “Endless Negotiations are Back on the Table”
Ukrainian NATO Accession is a Vital American National Security Interest
The Ukraine crisis is testing the Biden administration. The Russian buildup of military forces east of Ukraine illustrates the peril of not expanding NATO. Yet, the United States is effectively only threatening financial sanctions against Russia, or at least that is the general perception. The crisis illustrates that further NATO expansion eastwards should be anContinue reading “Ukrainian NATO Accession is a Vital American National Security Interest”
How Imminent is War?
If Israel alone had dictated the timing of the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program had it been determined either by the pace of progress in the Iran’s nuclear weapons program or the date would be after the June 2023 Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections but obviously not earlier than the Israeli project toContinue reading “How Imminent is War?”
Will Tehran Unleash Hezbollah?
There are reportedly differing assessments in Israeli military intelligence (Aman) as to whether Hezbollah will attack Israel in response to Israel and America destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Why is this so? Iranian officials insist that they will “destroy Israel” in response to the destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. This of course isContinue reading “Will Tehran Unleash Hezbollah?”
Iran is a Terrorist State
Iran is the largest state sponsor of terrorism in the world. Supporting and orchestrating terrorism is part of the geostrategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran worldwide. It should thus not surprise anyone that Iran plans mass terrorist attacks with chemical weapons against major cities around the world in revenge for America and Israel destroyingContinue reading “Iran is a Terrorist State”
Iran Intends to Force the World into Submission
Iran has an elaborate plan to force the world into political, ideological, geopolitical, economic and religious submission by means of extortive deployment and use of weapons of mass destruction. Iran is already in the very earliest stage of its campaign. Iran intends to break out as a superpower already when Israel and the US destroyContinue reading “Iran Intends to Force the World into Submission”
Joint Exercises are a Good Start
The Pentagon has leaked that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz will discuss joint military exercises for destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is an excellent way to begin to restore US military deterrence vis-a-vis Iran. This also signals that the US is partnering with Israel not justContinue reading “Joint Exercises are a Good Start”
When to Attack Iran?
It takes time and effort to build an international coalition to establish a no-fly zone over Iran. Despite the P5+1 still entertaining desperate hopes about reaching an agreement with Tehran, there is absolutely no chance that such an agreement will be clinched for the simple reason that such an agreement is not in the interestContinue reading “When to Attack Iran?”
What Tehran Thinks of Nuclear Deterrence
What is Tehran’s perspective on nuclear deterrence? Iran generally believes that liberal democracies with their humanitarian sensibilities are not very serious about nuclear deterrence. One exception is the United States under Republican administrations since Republican presidents are generally perceived as “mean” and “dangerous”. However, Iran does not believe that there is any risk in attackingContinue reading “What Tehran Thinks of Nuclear Deterrence”
The US has no Plan B
There is an obvious contradiction between the Malley doctrine (yes to endless negotiations) and the Blinken doctrine (no to endless negotiations). The US is literally desperate about reconciling with the implacable Iranian regime. The reasons are deeply understandable since the consequences of Israeli conflict with Iran will be mass terrorist attacks with chemical weapons againstContinue reading “The US has no Plan B”
Israel Should Reconsider its Policy of Nuclear Ambiguity
Israel’s deterrence posture against Iran has collapsed and it is unclear why this is so, one possible explanation is that Tehran assumes that the Democratic administration in the US will intervene to prevent Israel from nuking Qom after Iran’s proxy Hezbollah attacks Israeli cities with chemical weapons subsequent to Israel’s destruction of the Iranian nuclearContinue reading “Israel Should Reconsider its Policy of Nuclear Ambiguity”
Appeasement Undermines Deterrence
The appeasement policy of the Democratic administration undermines America’s deterrence posture. Iran is well aware that no Democratic administration will respond with nuclear weapons to Iranian chemical weapons attacks against America and hence is America highly vulnerable to chemical weapons attacks against major American cities. President Trump was not afraid to abrogate the JCPOA sinceContinue reading “Appeasement Undermines Deterrence”
The Iranian Waves Plan
What is the Iranian game plan for chemical weapons attacks against perceived and actual adversaries in response to the Israeli destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program and an allied imposition of a no-fly zone over Iran? It is virtually impossible to stop the Iranian provision of chemical weapons to sleeper cells in countries aroundContinue reading “The Iranian Waves Plan”
Mass Terrorism with Nuclear Impunity
As America has reentered the Vienna indirect “negotiations”, the United States has to consider the consequences of Khomeinist Iran becoming a nuclear power. The threat of Iran using chemical weapons against major American cities and indeed against cities around the world in countries that Tehran may want to “punish” will become even worse. Once IranContinue reading “Mass Terrorism with Nuclear Impunity”
Futile Diplomacy
Once a no-fly zone is imposed by a coalition of Israel and allied nations of Islamdom over Iran and Israel has destroyed the Iranian nuclear weapons program will Iran and its proxies retaliate with chemical weapons attacks not only against Israeli cities but indeed against major cities worldwide. Who can seriously believe that “the GreatContinue reading “Futile Diplomacy”
A Partial Agreement Would not Appease Iran
According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, the Israeli government is concerned that the US government seeks an interim agreement, meaning freezing Iranian uranium enrichment and effectively recognizing Iran as a nuclear threshold state. Such an agreement would indeed be a severe mistake that would reward Iranian violations of the JCPOA. This illustratesContinue reading “A Partial Agreement Would not Appease Iran”
Empty Threats Undermine America’s Deterrence Posture
The Biden administration’s practice of making more or less veiled threats against Iran, threats which the administration is manifestly not ready to follow through on is not only not credible but is furthermore detrimental since it undermines the US deterrence posture vis-a-vis Iran and enhances the threat of Iranian chemical weapons attacks against major AmericanContinue reading “Empty Threats Undermine America’s Deterrence Posture”
The Threat of Nuclear Impunity
The so-called “international community” lives in intense fear for Iranian chemical weapons attacks against major cities around the world. Fending off this threat as combined with buying time by delaying the timeline of the development of the Iranian nuclear weapons program were the only motivations for concluding the JCPOA. The Iranian chemical weapons threat wouldContinue reading “The Threat of Nuclear Impunity”
Aliyah Organization 