There was a disagreement during the meeting in Israel between President Biden and Prime Minister Lapid on the question of Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Prime Minister Lapid insisted that only deterrence would persuade Iran to sign a nuclear agreement while President Biden insisted that diplomacy was still the best way forward. Both are wrong sinceContinue reading “Nothing Except Military Action Will Stop Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program”
Tag Archives: Nuclear weapons
Iran’s Window of Opportunity
Iranian senior officials openly and publicly state that their overarching strategy is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam in Mecca leading to global Khomeinist theocratic rule. One crucial factor which is closing the window on Iranian eschatological imperialism is however the advent of electric vehicles. The electric vehicle industry has changed much sinceContinue reading “Iran’s Window of Opportunity”
The Saudis are No Suckers
The US-Saudi relationship was always based on oil in return for security. There were those Americans who lately mistakenly presumed that the United States no longer needed Saudi Arabia. This is wrong. The US will need the KSA as a staging ground for any military action against Iran after Tehran lashes out against the outsideContinue reading “The Saudis are No Suckers”
The Iranians Know What They Want
After the failed talks in Doha about returning to the JCPOA are American diplomats bitterly complaining that the Iranians are seemingly unable to decide whether to resume or bury the JCPOA. This is a complete and utter misunderstanding of the Iranian position which is to have their cake and eat it too. Iran wants continuedContinue reading “The Iranians Know What They Want”
The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East
Why are Finland and Sweden suddenly applying for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization? They understand the simple truth that the Russian invasion of Ukraine would never have occurred had Ukraine already been a member of NATO. NATO is not primarily an organization for waging war but above all an organization for preventing warContinue reading “The US Must Learn From Ukraine War How to Prevent War in the Middle East”
Rethinking the American-Saudi-Israeli Triangular Relationship
In a 2021 visit to Saudi Arabia by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud offered to fully normalize relations with Israel in return for advanced American weapons sales and a US-Saudi defense pact whereby the US would promise to defend the KSA in the event Saudi Arabia was invadedContinue reading “Rethinking the American-Saudi-Israeli Triangular Relationship”
Time for American-Saudi-Israeli Strategic Dialogue
Washington is fully coordinated with Jerusalem in its preparations of military options against Tehran. However, peculiar enough Riyadh has been kept outside the loop. This is very concerning considering that coordinating with the KSA is vital in preparation for air strikes against the Iranian nuclear weapons program, imposing a no-fly zone over Iran and preparingContinue reading “Time for American-Saudi-Israeli Strategic Dialogue”
The New Heartland
Islamists all strive for world hegemony through political control over Islamdom. While it is true that Islamists hold significant power in Pakistan and Turkey, they are not in full control over those nations, neither of which is a theocracy. Iran is a different matter though as Tehran is a great power under full Islamist controlContinue reading “The New Heartland”
The West Should Stop Dragging its Feet on Arming Ukraine
Ukraine says that it has only received about 10% of the weapons deliveries it has requested from the West. What could conceivably explain this scandalous situation? Either Western governments are greedy, incompetent and bureaucratic (something which seems unlikely) to the detriment of Ukraine or else is there a deliberate policy in place of not providingContinue reading “The West Should Stop Dragging its Feet on Arming Ukraine”
Massive US Force Buildup Necessary Prior to Destroying Nuclear Program
The ostensible negotiations process with Iran might seem like a waste of time considering Iran’s complete lack of interest in an agreement with the United States. However, that is certainly not the case as the time is well used by Iran’s intended victims to prepare for war against Iran. There are three levels of militaryContinue reading “Massive US Force Buildup Necessary Prior to Destroying Nuclear Program”
We Need to Defend the Oil Wells
The Middle East and the world will be in great danger following Israel and America’s inevitable destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapon’s program as Iran will not under any circumstances be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons capability. Twelver Sharia forbids offensive war and for the ruling mullahs in Iran is the American-Israeli destruction of the nuclearContinue reading “We Need to Defend the Oil Wells”
Inside Iran’s Expansionist Mindset
Twelver Shia theology prohibits offensive war but Khomeinists believe it allows terrorism which it peculiarly construes as defensive, so-called “resistance”. Khomeinist Iran has so far engaged in regional expansionism through proxies, i.e. Shiite militias. Iran also maintains a close relationship with the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood everywhere but in Syria, which is also expressed in Iran’sContinue reading “Inside Iran’s Expansionist Mindset”
Northern Peace Will Come at a Heavy Cost
Iranian officials state over and over again that Israel will be destroyed if Israel destroys the Iranian nuclear weapons program. They literally mean what they say. What this means is that the entire Iranian axis (primarily Hezbollah) will engage in a frontal assault against Israel with projectiles, including ones with chemical warheads. (Iranian use ofContinue reading “Northern Peace Will Come at a Heavy Cost”
Erdogan’s Invasion Threatens Vital Israeli Interests
Erdogan once more threatens to invade NES (North and East Syria). He threatened this already in November 2021 and his plans were apparently shelved by the Sabbatean-controlled Derin Devlet deep state domestic intelligence apparatus which has significant influence over both TAF (Turkish Armed Forces) and the Turkish government. There are currently no moves on theContinue reading “Erdogan’s Invasion Threatens Vital Israeli Interests”
There is Nothing to Negotiate
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has long made it known that the conflict will ostensibly end at the negotiating table. It is a common tactic for parties to armed conflicts to give an impression of being open to “negotiations” and “compromise” in order to garner international sympathy. However, in this case is it ill-advised because itContinue reading “There is Nothing to Negotiate”
Strategic Deterrence will Fail
“We have told the world we are not willing to take it anymore,” he said. “Iran says we can bring the war to your doorstep, because you will never bring it to ours. This is not going to happen. This is not how it’s going to play. I understand why they felt that this isContinue reading “Strategic Deterrence will Fail”
Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel
There are multiple reasons why Hezbollah and its allies in the Iranian axis in the Middle East will engage in a frontal assault on Israel after Israel and the US destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program once so-called “negotiations” have become completely exhausted. 1. The Iranian regime systematically states that this will happen if theContinue reading “Why Hezbollah Will Attack Israel”
America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check
The reality that most do not want to acknowledge is that the Khomeinist leadership in Iran for their own reasons simply do not want to return to the JCPOA and they are not interested in any alternative agreement either. Any viable agreement would have to have bipartisan support and be acceptable to Israel and itsContinue reading “America, Israel and Iran – A Reality Check”
Russia’s Successful Nuclear Deterrence
Under what conditions would Russia be willing to use tactical nuclear weapons? It is important to understand that nuclear weapons are mainly psychological weapons. They are meant for psychological deterrence, mainly not to be used, as using strategic nuclear weapons is out of question in Europe. This surely opens the question under what circumstances andContinue reading “Russia’s Successful Nuclear Deterrence”
The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse
“I am decisely announcing to the whole world that if the world-devourers [the infidel powers] wish to stand against our religion, we will stand against the whole world and will not cease until the annihilation of all of them. Either we all become free, or we will go to the greater freedom, which is martyrdom.Continue reading “The Approaching Khomeinist Apocalypse”
The United States Needs Saudi Arabia
The early assessment by the Biden administration that a return to the JCPOA could be taken for granted and that the US did not really need Saudi Arabia as an ally has been disproven by subsequent events. Iran is more aggressive than ever and Ali Khamenei is apparently grooming the arch-extremist president Ebrahim Raisi asContinue reading “The United States Needs Saudi Arabia”
The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse
Tehran is currently moderately convinced that America and Israel will not dare to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is one of the reasons for its rejectionism in Vienna. Nevertheless, on Quds Day, Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah threatened that Iran might attack Israel directly if Israeli sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons programContinue reading “The Danger of Preemptive Apocalypse”
What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?
For over a year Iran experts and intelligence analysts around the world predicted that Iran would return to the JCPOA. Only now are Israeli officials coming to the realization that there won’t be an agreement. Even so they claim that chances of an agreement are “slim to none”. This reveals a complete misreading of theContinue reading “What is Wrong with the Iran Experts?”
Putin’s Gazprom Gambit
Russia’s illegal cancellation of its contracts for delivery of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria is a transparent attempt at divide and rule. Moscow is trying to divide EU nations among themselves in an attempt to deter the West from providing Ukraine with more heavy weapons. Of course, Russia will not cancel its deliveries ofContinue reading “Putin’s Gazprom Gambit”
Inside the Khomeinist Mind
The Iranian regime openly states that its overarching geostrategic goal is to prompt the reappearance of the Hidden Imam. Yet academic experts and intelligence analysts do tend to not pay attention to the religious dimension of Iranian decision making. Khomeinism is unique in the sense as being the only form of Islamism that is apocalypticContinue reading “Inside the Khomeinist Mind”
Every Inch of Ukrainian Territory
The US government has since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine famously rhetorically committed to the defense of “every inch of NATO territory”. The US policy in defense of Ukraine has been more ambiguous and which aims at “slowing down the Russian advance”. However at one point the Ukrainians decided to go on theContinue reading “Every Inch of Ukrainian Territory”
Biden Should put his Money Where his Mouth Is
US president Joe Biden has accused Russia of committing genocide in Ukraine with the caveat that legal experts will have to ultimately determine whether the situation actually legally constitutes genocide. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed Biden’s statement but pointed out that Ukraine urgently needs delivery of heavy weapons. One may surely wonder why NATO nationsContinue reading “Biden Should put his Money Where his Mouth Is”
How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran
Western specialists tend to underemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Iran. In contrast, Western specialists tend to overemphasize the importance of state ideology in the foreign policy of Russia. There is the tendency to label the Russian leadership as irrational and dangerous while the Iranian leadership is not similarly labeledContinue reading “How the West Misunderstands Russia and Iran”
The Price of Aggression
Let there be no doubt that if Hezbollah and the rest of the Iranian axis launch a frontal assault on Israel in response to Israel and America destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program there will surely be a hefty price to pay. There will be consequences, there will be a major war in the northernContinue reading “The Price of Aggression”
Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy
Ayatollah Khomeini introduced a governing principle according to which Iranian national interests take precedence over sharia. This may seem surprising for an Islamist theocratic regime but can be observed in Iranian foreign policy for various parts of the world. Iran is completely silent on China’s Han colonization of Xinjiang and totalitarian policies of coerced assimilationContinue reading “Khomeinism and Iranian Foreign Policy”
Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait
The triangular relationship between the State of Israel, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States of America is essential for the emerging regional security architecture in the Middle East and Islamdom at large. Much is at stake, will Iran come to dominate the Middle East and Islamdom or will it not? All thisContinue reading “Building the Regional Security Architecture Cannot Wait”
Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture
Iran is engaged in a concerted military expansion of its military assets in the Middle East, including missiles and drones. The State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are the two most important pillars in the emerging new regional security architecture in the Middle East in particular and in Islamdom at large. Yet,Continue reading “Saudi Arabia is Indispensable to the New Regional Security Architecture”
Who is Right on Iran?
What are Iran’s intentions in Vienna? Non-Iranian intelligence agencies do not appear to know. Many weeks ago there was a flood of Israeli predictions of an imminent deal in Vienna but those fears have certainly not materialized and now even the Americans appear skeptical at the feasibility of a return to the JCPOA. I haveContinue reading “Who is Right on Iran?”
The West Should Hasten Ukraine’s Victory
The ZSU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) have exposed the Russian military as incompetent, corrupt and unmotivated. It is important to further demoralize the Russian side by hastening its defeat in Ukraine. While it is true that Russia has incrementally made tactical territorial gains, primarily in southern Ukraine, the ZSU has been winning strategically all alongContinue reading “The West Should Hasten Ukraine’s Victory”
First Things First
American diplomacy and American leadership is imperative in ending the war in Ukraine which undoubtedly is intended by Russia to constitute the very beginning of WWIII. Relations between Moscow and Washington are at their lowest point in decades but it is nevertheless essential for the United States to reach out diplomatically to the Russian Federation.Continue reading “First Things First”
Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel
In February 2022 Israel deployed six Israeli drones to successfully destroy hundreds of Iranian drones. It was not until now that Iran retaliated, by striking a Mossad training facility in Erbil, the capital of the KRI (Kurdistan Region of Iraq) with missiles launched from Iranian territory. This obviously represents a drastic escalation but it isContinue reading “Despite Bravado Iran Fears Israel”
A Unique Diplomatic Opportunity for Peace
Beijing’s nightmare is an Asian defense alliance encircling China from all directions and since China is surrounded by rivals, does Beijing make sure to keep close to Russia. Both Beijing and Moscow are keenly aware that a major confrontation between China and Russia over the ownership of Siberia looms on the horizon. Yet, both nationsContinue reading “A Unique Diplomatic Opportunity for Peace”
It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe
Russian propaganda has been successful in spreading the misconception that the current conflict is about Ukraine. Baltic governments have been consistently warning that the invasion of Ukraine is merely the opening salvo of WWIII. This is a classical war of imperial conquest. Russian propaganda claims that Europe is interested in conquering Russian wealth but thisContinue reading “It’s not About Ukraine – It’s About Europe”
Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin
There has been a wide range of attempts to pathologize Russian president Vladimir Putin to explain the Ukraine war. It is surprising that otherwise rational and highly educated observers assume that the Russian system suddenly operates without an elaborate strategy. Putin’s Russia has always been similar in its geostrategic behavior to the former Soviet Union,Continue reading “Inside the Mind of Vladimir Putin”
Normalization in Limbo
In the waning days of the Trump presidency was the world presented with a long list of Muslim countries waiting to normalize relations with Israel. However, once Trump had exited the White House, the process came to an abrupt end and no more Muslim countries have so far normalized relations with Israel during the BidenContinue reading “Normalization in Limbo”
The Russian Military Incompetence
All militaries are incompetent to varying degrees due to regular militaries being huge apparatuses based on planned centralized command economy. This of course is breeding ground for incompetence and bureaucratic failure. Asymmetric warfare is precisely so effective because it is non-bureaucratic with a decentralized command structure. The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) is unique in theContinue reading “The Russian Military Incompetence”
It’s not About the Money
Israeli officials are somewhat hysterical in anticipation of a nuclear agreement materializing in Vienna. This of course is profoundly understandable since the JCPOA and an even worse hypothetical follow-up agreement are disastrous for Israeli security and are completely worthless as an insurance for Israeli survival. The question is however whether there will be an agreementContinue reading “It’s not About the Money”
Who Will Invade Whom?
Israel and Iran have completely different assessments as to the outcome of the future conflict between Israel and the so-called “Axis of Resistance” in the Levant. Iran assumes that massive barrages of rockets and missiles, many of them with chemical warheads, will inflict such heavy damage on the Israeli home front and cause such disorientationContinue reading “Who Will Invade Whom?”
Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics
Iran is tactically brilliant in always seeing opportunities to expand its influence but it must be kept in mind that it is strategically lunatic in seeking world rule for the Hidden Imam as its ultimate strategic goal. Hezbollah’s intentions have been much debated within the Israeli intelligence community. What is Hezbollah? Hezbollah is a franchiseContinue reading “Master Tacticians, Strategic Lunatics”
The Death of the Liberal World Order
The US project of imposing a liberal world order has a long pedigree going back to US president Woodrow Wilson a century ago. The pro-democracy efforts by US President George W. Bush resulted in the Arab spring years later but failed to establish liberal democracy other than in Tunisia where it did not last. WithContinue reading “The Death of the Liberal World Order”
Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse
Due to crushing UN economic sanctions did Iran agree to the JCPOA in 2015. Iran’s economic situation was such that Iran’s leaders agreed to defer the timeline of the Khomeinist apocalypse. Today in contrast there is no such incentive as Iran is able to export oil to China, and Tehran rightly sees no economic benefitContinue reading “Iran does not Want to Defer the Apocalypse”
The Approaching Apocalypse
Khomeinism is different from all other forms of Islamism in that it constitutes an apocalyptic death cult. No other sect of Islamism believes that the end of days is close in time. However, Khomeinism has no fixed date for the apocalypse which is somewhat flexible in time. The general understanding is that eschatological time wasContinue reading “The Approaching Apocalypse”
Regionwide War and Global Terror
Iran does not fear America which it considers bruised by war and defeated by international Jihadism. In the Khomeinist Weltanschauung is Israel merely one of the tentacles of the “worldwide” American-Jewish “octopus” and so Tehran believes that Jerusalem cannot independently decide on destroying Iran’s nuclear weapons program without a green light from Washington. Therefore willContinue reading “Regionwide War and Global Terror”
The American Desperation
The JCPOA is inching towards collapse as the definite burial of the JCPOA is only days away. The US sanctions on the Iranian civilian nuclear program were lifted as a desperate goodwill gesture to the Khomeinist regime to show them that the American government is acting in good faith. America faces a dark future asContinue reading “The American Desperation”
Conflict with Iran is Inevitable
There is no chance of reaching a nuclear agreement with Iran for the simple reason that Tehran is not interested in temporary sanctions relief as the next Republican administration would promptly reimpose sanctions. However, even if hypothetically a nuclear agreement was reached between Tehran and Washington, this would only defer the conflict. Iran is hell-bentContinue reading “Conflict with Iran is Inevitable”
Aliyah Organization 