“Syria warns Israel and its sponsors once again of the dangers of these aggressive policies, which push the region towards total escalation and a new phase of insecurity and instability,” ‘Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs At the height of the Syrian Civil War did the last Baathist regime make a devil’s bargain with the mullahsContinue reading “The Syrian Regime – Not Israel – Will Collapse”
Category Archives: Iran
Iran Will Lose Syria and Lebanon
“When necessary – we will push them out of Syria to where they belong – and that is Iran.” Yoav Gallant, Israeli minister of defense Iran as usual is strategically arrogant but tactically cautious. The mullahs believe that Iran and its allies are capable of destroying the Jewish state. Previously was it believed that IsraelContinue reading “Iran Will Lose Syria and Lebanon”
Will Khamenei Order Nasrallah to Attack?
The Israeli defense establishment is convinced that Hezbollah is planning to take advantage of Israel’s perceived ”weakness” to attack Israel in Tehran hence believing that Israel will want to limit the conflict rather than widen it. Israel’s defense minister Yoav Gallant has warned that this is not the case, that Iran will face a NorthernContinue reading “Will Khamenei Order Nasrallah to Attack?”
What is the Ideology of the Israeli Deep State?
The approach of the Israeli Deep State is Zionist pragmatism. This means that Israeli governments of various political colors are used to realize strategic projects conceived by the Israeli Deep State which after all is responsible for Israeli long-term strategic planning. How is it possible, you may ask, that the Israeli Deep State was behindContinue reading “What is the Ideology of the Israeli Deep State?”
The Northern War is a War of No Choice
The neutralization of the Iranian nuclear weapons program is most clearly a war of no choice because the completion of the nuclear weapons program would pose an existential threat against the State of Israel. This is clear, but is the ensuing Northern War also a war of no choice? The answer to that question isContinue reading “The Northern War is a War of No Choice”
Treacherous, Cowardly and Transgressive: The Role of Muslim Anti-Semitism in Iranian Strategic Perception vis-a-vis the United States
There is no way around seeing the United States the way the Islamic Republic of Iran sees the United States of America, namely as the global Jewish conspiracy incarnate to destroy Islam. This comes with a mixture of modern conspiratorial Anti-Semitism and classical Muslim Anti-Semitism replete with certain stereotypes which are less frequently attributed toContinue reading “Treacherous, Cowardly and Transgressive: The Role of Muslim Anti-Semitism in Iranian Strategic Perception vis-a-vis the United States”
Perceived US Weakness Invites “Death of America”
The Biden administration needs to formulate a strategy of strength vis-a-vis Iran. Why is that so? Because of Iran’s intention to implement ”Death of America”, namely Iran’s plan to attack major American cities with biological weapons during the Russo-Iranian WWIII against Europe and the MENA region. What can the US do? Perception of strength isContinue reading “Perceived US Weakness Invites “Death of America””
When is Iran Planning to Attack the American Homeland?
“The Death of America will happen.” Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei Iran assumes that no one will dare neutralize the Iranian nuclear weapons program, but they have a backup response plan for that event which involves destroying Israel. This future conflict is known in Israel as theContinue reading “When is Iran Planning to Attack the American Homeland?”
Saudi-Iranian Resumption of Diplomatic Relations are Good News
The Chinese-brokered agreement to resume normal diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran means that an Iranian invasion of the KSA after Israel (and the US) neutralize the Iranian nuclear weapons program, is off the table and that is good news for the global economy. Yet, it does not mean that the threat of an IranianContinue reading “Saudi-Iranian Resumption of Diplomatic Relations are Good News”
The US National Interest Requires US Membership in a MENA Defense Alliance
Iran is planning to roll its tanks all the way through the MENA region to the Atlantic coast of Morocco and Israel is the most significant obstacle in its way. There are serious problems with the nascent MENA alliance in all its phases: Why is this a US interest? Because this will paradoxically make theContinue reading “The US National Interest Requires US Membership in a MENA Defense Alliance”
Cutting the Gordian Knot
There are currently intense trilateral US-Saudi-Israeli negotiations aimed at reaching a peace agreement between Riyadh and Jerusalem. Riyadh has two demands – down from three. The KSA demands security guarantees from the US and that Washington helps Riyadh develop a domestic nuclear program, including indigenous uranium enrichment. MBS has apparently dropped the demand for USContinue reading “Cutting the Gordian Knot”
Iran’s Academic Army
Iran has invested heavily in recruiting, training and nurturing academic agents of influence in Western nations. This is a formidable force devoted to downplaying the Iranian threat, falsely claiming that so-called ”reformist” Islamists have real influence and generally acting apologists for the Iranian regime. It is vital that Western decision makers are made aware thatContinue reading “Iran’s Academic Army”
Genocide in America
Make no mistake, the United States of America, a.k.a. “The Great Satan” is the main and primary adversary of the Islamic Republic of Iran. “Death to America” is no mere slogan, the Supreme Leader says it will happen. Why is this so? For the same reason why 9/11 happened. Because Islamist ideologues generally are stronglyContinue reading “Genocide in America”
What is Iran’s War Plan?
Khomeinist theologians believe that the destruction of Israel is a precondition for the Hidden Imam to reappear. I.e. as long as Israel exists won’t the Hidden Imam reappear and so is Israel according to this particular theology an obstacle to the emergence of the messianic age. This is why theocratic Iran is so obsessed withContinue reading “What is Iran’s War Plan?”
Inside the Minds of Iranian Strategists
The Khomeinist regime in Tehran has long preferred not to invade other countries and rather rely on proxies to project Iranian power. Iran first and foremost wants to control the Khomeinist Apocalyptic region, the triangle of Mecca, Jerusalem and Damascus. There can be little doubt that the Iranian military will cross Iraq to reach SyriaContinue reading “Inside the Minds of Iranian Strategists”
Derin Devlet Needs to Ensure Turkish Non-Intervention in Syria
War is approaching in the Middle East due advancements in the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This means that Israel’s upcoming defensive Northern War in Syria and Lebanon to crush Hezbollah, install the PYD as the new government in Damascus, establish an Aramean state in parts of Lebanon, annex Median Jewish (Alawite and Druze) regions andContinue reading “Derin Devlet Needs to Ensure Turkish Non-Intervention in Syria”
The Moment of Truth
President Biden has many times publicly vowed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear arms. Attacking Iran may be a difficult decision to make for the American president, but it is far more dangerous for America not to participate in an attack than to participate. Why is this so? Because showing weakness is profoundly dangerous inContinue reading “The Moment of Truth”
Arab Honor Culture and Geopolitics
Honor culture is the single most underestimated geopolitical factor in the MENA region. On the one hand does “honor” require Arab governments to officially support the PA despite detesting it and Israel being the actual ally of most Arab governments. On the other hand, confidence in America is undermined whenever the US does not standContinue reading “Arab Honor Culture and Geopolitics”
America Needs Strategic Focus in Mideast Policy
As the Biden administration has finally concluded that the JCPOA is off the table, the US needs a coherent and focused strategy in the Middle East to protect US national security. Iran with its WMD terrorist networks poses the greatest threat to American national security and so it is essential to contain and deter IranContinue reading “America Needs Strategic Focus in Mideast Policy”
Time for an Alevi Ataturk
Although the most important thing is defeating Erdogan in the May 2023 presidential elections, my favorite as the opposition candidate is Kemal Kilicdaroglu provided that he is extremely likely to win the elections. The reasons are simple, Turkey must be ruled by Alevi presidents for the foreseeable future so as to ensure Median Jewish AliyahContinue reading “Time for an Alevi Ataturk”
Human Rights Promotion in Saudi Arabia Doesn’t Serve American Interests
It is generally a truism that promotion of human rights serves American interests, but this is not always true everywhere. One place where this is usually not the case is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. What are the American interests in Saudi Arabia? 1) First, Riyadh controls the global price of oil and so irrespectiveContinue reading “Human Rights Promotion in Saudi Arabia Doesn’t Serve American Interests”
Building a MENA Defense Alliance Takes Years
Imagine if WWI and WWII could have been foreseen and prevented? Just imagine that for a moment! Now we have the opportunity to prevent WWIII that Russia and Iran are planning for Europe and the MENA region. By preventing WWIII we can also position ourselves to avoid a Chinese-instigated global WWIV. It is absolutely pivotalContinue reading “Building a MENA Defense Alliance Takes Years”
Israel Should Mediate Between KSA and USA
There are indications that there are negotiations between America and Saudi Arabia and so the question is what can be done to accelerate them? What are the stumbling blocks? The US government is likely making human rights related demands and MBS is probably reciprocating by lengthening his list of demands. The US government should considerContinue reading “Israel Should Mediate Between KSA and USA”
Iran Must be Deterred and Contained
In light of the new Russo-Iranian Molotov-Ribbentrop pact whereby Russia gets Europe and Iran gets the Arab world, it is necessary for threatened nations to reevaluate their relations with Iran. Saudi-Israeli peace and normalization can happen any day of the week once Washington and Riyadh agree on the terms and then the next step isContinue reading “Iran Must be Deterred and Contained”
The US Needs a Strategy for Preventing an Iranian Land Invasion Through Iraq
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani yesterday warned against Iran using Iraq as a springboard to invade Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. The Iraqi parliament last year passed a law proscribing any contacts with Israeli citizens and Israel bodies or visiting Israel and required capital punishment or life in prison for offenders. Not only isContinue reading “The US Needs a Strategy for Preventing an Iranian Land Invasion Through Iraq”
The Case for Pax Americana
America has been much demeaned by its detractors including American ones, but the reality is that the United States is the protector of a liberal-democratic community of nations and the global guarantor of peace and security. A so-called multipolar world would be truly dystopian as Iran, Russia and China are planning world wars with tacticalContinue reading “The Case for Pax Americana”
What is the Kurdish Interest in WWIII?
What is the Kurdish interest in terms of the approaching WWIII? It should be noted that WWIII can still be prevented by crushing the Russian war machine in Ukraine. However, how should AANES and KRG maneuver in anticipation of WWIII? It should always be kept in mind that NES and KRI are embryonic Kurdish statesContinue reading “What is the Kurdish Interest in WWIII?”
What is the Extent of the New Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?
“We strongly condemn any provocative efforts that have the potential to provoke an uncontrolled escalation of tensions in a region that’s far from being peaceful as it is. Such destructive actions could have unpredictable consequences for peace and stability in the Middle East. That has to be understood by the organizers of the brazen raid,Continue reading “What is the Extent of the New Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?”
On the Danger of Nuclear War
Russian propaganda would want us to believe that Moscow will resort to nuclear weapons if Russia is defeated and expelled from Ukraine. Of course, as usual Russia disseminates disinformation. The opposite is true. If Russia is defeated in Ukraine and the Russian war machine crushed will Moscow effectively have no choice but to join theContinue reading “On the Danger of Nuclear War”
Drawing Arab Conclusions From the New Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
What conclusions should Arab governments draw from the new apparent Molotov-Ribbentrop pact between Russia and Iran whereby Moscow conquers Europe and Tehran simultaneously conquers the Arab world in a WWIII possibly half a decade from now? Tehran counts on Arab disunity and on an Arab domino effect whereby Iran can pick off one major ArabContinue reading “Drawing Arab Conclusions From the New Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact”
Israel’s Ukrainian Conundrum
What are the reasons for Israel refraining from selling lethal weapons to Ukraine despite it clearly being in the interest of Israel that Russia is defeated and thus WWIII is avoided and China is contained? Because that much is at stake in the Ukraine war. In contrast to this fear-based policy in which Israeli weaponsContinue reading “Israel’s Ukrainian Conundrum”
The Neutrality Illusion
Kuwait, Oman and Qatar maintain policies of neutrality while benefiting from covert defense cooperation with Israel. However, they should have no illusions regarding Iran’s intention to conquer them as well. In fact, it will be pivotal for those three nations to join a MENA defense alliance. Staying neutral would be delusional.
Algeria Must Prioritize its own National Interests
Algeria is currently bent on not joining the normalization bandwagon. However, the apparent existence of a Russo-Iranian new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact whereby Moscow gets the entire Europe and Tehran gets the entire Arab world should make Algiers rethink its entire approach. Iran is absolutely intent on conquering all Arab countries, including Algeria; and Israel as theContinue reading “Algeria Must Prioritize its own National Interests”
Iran is Betting on an Arab Domino Effect
Arab governments are for the most part profoundly suspicious of each other yet nowadays quite trusting of Israel in many respects. This is the crux of forming a Middle Eastern defense alliance. Arab governments don’t mind secretly aligning with Israel but balk at aligning with each other. The problem in military terms is that IranContinue reading “Iran is Betting on an Arab Domino Effect”
Iran is Determined to Destroy America
According to Iran’s regime ideology is America, Tehran’s main enemy. The reason this is so as for all Islamist ideologists is that the American superpower is considered identical with the purported global Jewish conspiracy to destroy Islam. The Obama and Biden administrations have pursued a strategy of appeasing Iran and hoping to eventually align withContinue reading “Iran is Determined to Destroy America”
Why is Tehran Training for a US-led Naval Invasion of Iran?
Iran regards the sole threat to its territory as coming from the Persian Gulf; i.e. from a US-led naval invasion of Iran and is actively training to counter this perceived threat. However, on the face of it, this seems utterly implausible in the extreme. Why would the United States want to get entangled in yetContinue reading “Why is Tehran Training for a US-led Naval Invasion of Iran?”
More Than Meets the Eye
Russia plans to deliver a new air force to Iran and Iran is delivering kamikaze drones to Russia. That is what is known about the extent of the military relationship between Iran and Russia which has obviously reached a strategic level. Both nations are militarily adventurous and plan big conquests which they however at thisContinue reading “More Than Meets the Eye”
The Battle Lines Have Been Drawn
It has become clear that behind the mutual arming between Iran and Russia is a new Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Russia gets the entire Europe and Iran gets the entire Arab world, including Israel. Putin’s decision of course is not motivated by hostility against Israel, it is simply realpolitik. It makes sense to tie up American forcesContinue reading “The Battle Lines Have Been Drawn”
Not for Sentimental or Religious Reasons
Israeli state strategists have treated the issue of the Temple Mount as a mere sentimental and religious one. This has also been the line promoted by national-religious advocates of reappropriation of Jewish heritage and Jewish rights on the Mount. For Palestinian strategists in contrast is this a matter of immense strategic importance. For Palestinian strategistsContinue reading “Not for Sentimental or Religious Reasons”
A Nucleus of a Middle Eastern Defense Alliance
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has made three demands from the US for making peace with Israel. Those are 1) a KSA-USA defense treaty, 2) NATO-level deliveries of weaponry and 3) what appears to be a demand to purchase the new small highly cost-effective nuclear power plants that are currently being developed inContinue reading “A Nucleus of a Middle Eastern Defense Alliance”
The New Israeli Government Represents an Opportunity for Peace
The Biden administration often repeats its commitment to resolving the Palestinian issue through an infamously failed formula which was always dead on arrival due to being founded on outright false premises constituting on the American side simply wishful thinking and refusal to learn from recent Israeli history. What is peculiar is that the Biden administrationContinue reading “The New Israeli Government Represents an Opportunity for Peace”
Free Kurdistan Should Prepare for Independence
The recent visit by PUK leader Bafel Talabani to AANES is certainly a most welcome and encouraging development. There should have been intra-Kurdish reconciliation between the different political parties of Kurdistan a long time ago but better late than never. The ongoing historical revolutionary processes in Iran means that there is quite realistically potentially anContinue reading “Free Kurdistan Should Prepare for Independence”
An Opportunity to Renew Confidence with Gulf Allies
After OPEC decided to decrease oil production quotas, the Biden administration determined to conduct a formal reassessment of the US relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. America in effect has no choice but to defend Gulf oil fields against Iran irrespective of what MBS does domestically and internationally and MBS knows it because theContinue reading “An Opportunity to Renew Confidence with Gulf Allies”
US Persian Gulf Strategy Harms American Interests
President Barack Obama’s Middle Eastern strategy of handing over the Muslim world to the Islamists as a means to defuse US-Muslim tensions and ostensibly facilitate so-called “Islamic democracy” which of course the peoples of Iran do enjoy so much (!) has fortunately not been maintained by the Biden administration despite largely being staffed by TeamContinue reading “US Persian Gulf Strategy Harms American Interests”
Civil War Appears Inevitable in Iran
The juggernaut of the current feminist revolution is unstoppable yet currently unable to bring down the detested Khomeinist regime. It appears however quite inevitable that the revolution at some point will descend into civil war. The demonstrators have at this point virtually limitless patience and the regime is effectively unable to crack down on theContinue reading “Civil War Appears Inevitable in Iran”
The Mullahs Fear the Women’s Revolution
The ruling mullahs in Iran are gravely concerned and rightly so. Why is this the case you may ask? They are afraid of the soft power of protesting feminists and particularly of Kurdish women and so are making great efforts to present women protesters as pawns of Iran’s enemies. Iran has active plans to attackContinue reading “The Mullahs Fear the Women’s Revolution”
US Threats Against Riyadh Incentivize Tehran to Attack the KSA
Why is Tehran threatening Riyadh while planning to attack, possibly even invade Saudi Arabia? Well, the main reason is that the mullahs believe that the Americans would not defend the KSA. The situation has been exacerbated by recent American threats against Saudi Arabia which in turn are rooted in a dysfunctional US policy towards IranContinue reading “US Threats Against Riyadh Incentivize Tehran to Attack the KSA”
On the Need for a Counter-Strategy to Iranian Mahdism
There is a profound strategic problem with respect to how Washington and Jerusalem deal with Tehran. Iran is no less motivated by Mahdism in its neo-imperialist strategy than the Soviet Union was motivated by Marxism-Leninism in its own imperialist strategy. Yet Washington and Jerusalem in their respective public rhetoric do not give any hint ofContinue reading “On the Need for a Counter-Strategy to Iranian Mahdism”
Who is Behind the Anti-Saudi Lobby?
Intelligence agencies may legally engage in political action in foreign countries as long as they do not break the law. The Israel lobby in the United States is meticulous in not technically acting as foreign agents and thus does not break the law despite acting as the long arm of Tevel, the Political Action andContinue reading “Who is Behind the Anti-Saudi Lobby?”
Biden has to Choose Between Iran and Saudi Arabia
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has had enough, he does not trust the United States in general and President Biden in particular and for good reasons. Three US presidents (Obama, Trump and Biden) have pursued American disengagement from the Middle East. Trump refrained from defending Saudi Arabia when it was attacked by Iran and MBSContinue reading “Biden has to Choose Between Iran and Saudi Arabia”
Aliyah Organization 