The Biden administration’s hawks and doves are busy preparing the US for two parallel tracks. Even the doves are becoming aware that the JCPOA is doomed and are therefore preparing for what they imagine will be negotiations on an entirely different nuclear agreement with Iran beyond the JCPOA. The hawks are preparing Plan B withContinue reading “What can be Expected on Iran”
Tag Archives: JCPOA
Why did Saddam Hussein not Turn Over his WMD to the UN?
Saddam Hussein is known to have had weapons of mass destruction and he used chemical weapons against his own Kurdish citizens and against the Iranian military. The pacifist myth according to which Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction was an American propaganda fabrication therefore does not hold water. There was a United Nations inspections regimeContinue reading “Why did Saddam Hussein not Turn Over his WMD to the UN?”
Iran, Syria and Lebanon Face Checkmate with Open Eyes
Israel is preparing to destroy Hezbollah and its state sponsors in the upcoming war in the northern Levant after Israel and America eliminate the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Iran is sabotaging the Vienna process up until the very end. Once the hopeless post-JCPOA “negotiations” as envisioned by the pro-Islamist notorious appeaser Rob Malley end, aContinue reading “Iran, Syria and Lebanon Face Checkmate with Open Eyes”
The Success of Iranian Disinformation
The Iranian regime successfully deceived the P5+1 into believing that the JCPOA would be revived. How did they do that? One explanation of course is deceptive diplomacy but that is not the main explanation. Iran is well aware that its system is fatally compromised by Israeli intelligence infiltration. But what about other great powers, don’tContinue reading “The Success of Iranian Disinformation”
How Imminent is War?
If Israel alone had dictated the timing of the destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program had it been determined either by the pace of progress in the Iran’s nuclear weapons program or the date would be after the June 2023 Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections but obviously not earlier than the Israeli project toContinue reading “How Imminent is War?”
Why has Israeli Intelligence been Wrong on Iran?
The Israeli intelligence community used to claim that Iran eventually would return to the JCPOA and now they assume that Iran is interested in an interim agreement that would freeze uranium enrichment in return for some sanctions relief. It appears that the Israeli intelligence community has not learned from its own mistakes. Iran has twoContinue reading “Why has Israeli Intelligence been Wrong on Iran?”
Are there Prospects for an Interim Agreement?
During the recent meeting between Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, the two nations shared their respective military plans for attacking the Iranian nuclear weapons program and discussed joint military exercises in planned training for destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Nevertheless, the JCPOA despite being moribund is notContinue reading “Are there Prospects for an Interim Agreement?”
The American Trauma
The past twenty years of American wars in the Middle East have created a certain amount of trauma in the American people. The stereotypical lesson from those wars is that those were mistakes but is it that simple? As the JCPOA inches towards inevitable collapse will America eventually face armed conflict with the Islamic RepublicContinue reading “The American Trauma”
The US Shifts Paradigm
The Pentagon has leaked that US officials and visiting Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz will discuss different military options on Iran and joint US-Israeli military exercises in preparation for destroying the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is aptly described as the worst-case scenario for Iran. It is certainly welcome that the US government has returnedContinue reading “The US Shifts Paradigm”
When to Attack Iran?
It takes time and effort to build an international coalition to establish a no-fly zone over Iran. Despite the P5+1 still entertaining desperate hopes about reaching an agreement with Tehran, there is absolutely no chance that such an agreement will be clinched for the simple reason that such an agreement is not in the interestContinue reading “When to Attack Iran?”
Will the US Join an International Coalition to Impose a No-Fly Zone over Iran?
What will US policy on Iran be after the demise of the JCPOA? Secretary of State Antony Blinken has strongly and repeatedly pronounced that the Malley doctrine (endless negotiations) is not US policy (or rather no longer US policy). The US has however given no indications as to what will be its Iran policy afterContinue reading “Will the US Join an International Coalition to Impose a No-Fly Zone over Iran?”
Why the US wants to Limit Sino-Israeli Economic Relations
The US government is very concerned about Israel-China economic relations to the point of telling Israel not to do business with Chinese companies that are active in the US. While the US has legitimate concerns in preventing transfer of sensitive dual usage technologies to China, the US has an additional agenda and that is toContinue reading “Why the US wants to Limit Sino-Israeli Economic Relations”
Iran’s Chemical Weapons Calculus
Why does Iran intend to attack third countries with chemical weapons following Israel’s destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program? First, this is intended as deterrence so that nations will pressure Israel never to attack the Iranian nuclear weapons program again. Second, it is intended to isolate the Jewish state among the nations and diminishContinue reading “Iran’s Chemical Weapons Calculus”
Iran is Undeterred
Israel does not yet have a military capability to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and will not have one for about a year or so and the US still does not have a Plan B. So currently the Iranians are not worried. However, no one should be surprised that Iran is undeterred. The lackContinue reading “Iran is Undeterred”
Inside the Mullahs’ Conspiratorial Universe
Most non-Anti-Semites have not tried to imagine what it means to be a conspiratorial Anti-Semite. To be a conspiratorial Anti-Semite means to live in a constant state of fear of the ostensibly omnipotent Jews. Conspiratorial Anti-Semites typically try to explain problems in terms of their worldview, meaning in effect that Jews are behind all problems. Continue reading “Inside the Mullahs’ Conspiratorial Universe”
The US has no Plan B
There is an obvious contradiction between the Malley doctrine (yes to endless negotiations) and the Blinken doctrine (no to endless negotiations). The US is literally desperate about reconciling with the implacable Iranian regime. The reasons are deeply understandable since the consequences of Israeli conflict with Iran will be mass terrorist attacks with chemical weapons againstContinue reading “The US has no Plan B”
Appeasement Undermines Deterrence
The appeasement policy of the Democratic administration undermines America’s deterrence posture. Iran is well aware that no Democratic administration will respond with nuclear weapons to Iranian chemical weapons attacks against America and hence is America highly vulnerable to chemical weapons attacks against major American cities. President Trump was not afraid to abrogate the JCPOA sinceContinue reading “Appeasement Undermines Deterrence”
Iran is Dangerous and Irrational
The Raisi administration is officially shutting down the JCPOA by reneging on all “concessions” of the Rouhani administration. The Iranian regime knows that the US is literally desperate to reach a nuclear deal in order to avoid Iranian chemical weapons mass terrorism on a global scale. Iran knows that its WMD extortion works and apparentlyContinue reading “Iran is Dangerous and Irrational”
Shifting Iran Paradigm
As the JCPOA is about to effectively expire, we should ponder whose policy is the real US policy on Iran, Rob Malley’s advocacy of endless negotiations or Antony Blinken’s opposition to endless negotiations? Is it possible that the US is transitioning from the Malley doctrine to a Blinken doctrine? Or is Blinken’s rhetoric merely anContinue reading “Shifting Iran Paradigm”
Why Iran will Continue to Stall
Iran is determined to continue to accelerate its nuclear weapons program and participation in “negotiations” is merely a means of playing for time so as to satisfy Russia and China in order to avoid UN sanctions. Iran already however has more than enough enriched uranium for one nuclear bomb but Iran is not satisfied withContinue reading “Why Iran will Continue to Stall”
America will not Elude Iranian Attacks
The JCPOA was quite effective in deferring the Iranian WMD mass terrorist threat. It could be argued that the JCPOA therefore constituted effectual appeasement despite constituting a temporary deferral and effectively selling out the existential interests of America’s Middle Eastern allies. There is no way to repeat the JCPOA trick as Iran is well awareContinue reading “America will not Elude Iranian Attacks”
The Myopia of Appeasement
America during the presidency of Barack Obama had as its policy to appease and even align with Islamism. This is not the policy of the Biden administration, yet the current administration clings desperately to the Obama-era JCPOA despite increasingly realizing that it is already dead. The latest idea for a partial agreement with Iran thatContinue reading “The Myopia of Appeasement”
Futile Diplomacy
Once a no-fly zone is imposed by a coalition of Israel and allied nations of Islamdom over Iran and Israel has destroyed the Iranian nuclear weapons program will Iran and its proxies retaliate with chemical weapons attacks not only against Israeli cities but indeed against major cities worldwide. Who can seriously believe that “the GreatContinue reading “Futile Diplomacy”
A Partial Agreement Would not Appease Iran
According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, the Israeli government is concerned that the US government seeks an interim agreement, meaning freezing Iranian uranium enrichment and effectively recognizing Iran as a nuclear threshold state. Such an agreement would indeed be a severe mistake that would reward Iranian violations of the JCPOA. This illustratesContinue reading “A Partial Agreement Would not Appease Iran”
Empty Threats Undermine America’s Deterrence Posture
The Biden administration’s practice of making more or less veiled threats against Iran, threats which the administration is manifestly not ready to follow through on is not only not credible but is furthermore detrimental since it undermines the US deterrence posture vis-a-vis Iran and enhances the threat of Iranian chemical weapons attacks against major AmericanContinue reading “Empty Threats Undermine America’s Deterrence Posture”
Rob Malley Changes his Position on Iran
The United States Special Representative for Iran Rob Malley has officially changed his position on the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Previously, Malley stated that the US will continue to negotiate to reach a diplomatic solution on the question of the Iranian nuclear weapons program even after the JCPOA becomes irrelevant. This was contrary to theContinue reading “Rob Malley Changes his Position on Iran”
The Threat of Nuclear Impunity
The so-called “international community” lives in intense fear for Iranian chemical weapons attacks against major cities around the world. Fending off this threat as combined with buying time by delaying the timeline of the development of the Iranian nuclear weapons program were the only motivations for concluding the JCPOA. The Iranian chemical weapons threat wouldContinue reading “The Threat of Nuclear Impunity”
What is the Real Iran Policy of the United States?
There seems to be two positions on Iran among US officials. United States Special Representative for Iran Rob Malley has stated that the US will continue to seek a diplomatic solution on the Iranian nuclear weapons program even after the JCPOA becomes irrelevant. Everyone else in the Biden administration claims that the US will examineContinue reading “What is the Real Iran Policy of the United States?”
Iran’s Complaints Prove that Israel’s Sabotage Operations are Effective
According to a credible report in the New York Times, the US government has requested that Israel refrain from carrying out sabotage operations against the Iranian nuclear weapons program so as to not undermine the upcoming Vienna indirect “negotiations” which are slated to resume on November 29, 2021. If the report is accurate then itContinue reading “Iran’s Complaints Prove that Israel’s Sabotage Operations are Effective”
The Rise of the two Great Powers in Islamdom
There is a growing cold war between Israel and Iran taking place in the Middle East. There has also been a parallel rise of the two countries to great power status. However, there will ultimately only be room for one great power in the Middle East and Islamdom generally. Muslim countries around the world areContinue reading “The Rise of the two Great Powers in Islamdom”
Lack of Retaliation Emboldens Iran
Iran recently attacked a US military base in southern Syria with suicide drones. The US declined to respond and thus did not launch a counter-attack. This sends a very dangerous message that US targets can be attacked with impunity by Iran and its proxies without the US responding. Apparently, the US is so keen onContinue reading “Lack of Retaliation Emboldens Iran”
Playing Into the Hands of Tehran
US foreign policy on Iran is playing into the hands of the tyrannical Khomeinist regime. The regime intends to play for time until the JCPOA is irrelevant and even after does it intend to play for time until Israel destroys the Iranian nuclear weapons program in 2023, all with the purpose of pleasing world powersContinue reading “Playing Into the Hands of Tehran”
There is No Logic in Iran Returning to the JCPOA
Tehran claims that it will return to “negotiations” with the US and with the rest of the P5+1 on November 29, 2021. No one knows whether there will actually be any negotiations in Vienna and if there are then these talks will surely be devoid of any substance since Tehran’s tactic is to delay andContinue reading “There is No Logic in Iran Returning to the JCPOA”
A No-Fly Zone Over Iran is a Vital US National Security Interest
Israel will destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program and the attack will likely take place in 2023. The attack would have to be repeated after less than two years and then after less than two years again. These regular attacks would go on indefinitely with intervals of less than two years so as to preventContinue reading “A No-Fly Zone Over Iran is a Vital US National Security Interest”
Iran’s Nuclear Calculus
Iran faces a dilemma; if it continues to accelerate its nuclear weapons program, it will be destroyed by Israel from the air in late 2022 or early 2023. If Tehran reenters the JCPOA then it will have to give up the immense advances it has made in the past year of uranium enrichment. That ofContinue reading “Iran’s Nuclear Calculus”
Why Israel Keeps Quiet on Median Jewry
The Israel government keeps absolutely silent on the question of core Median Jewry and core Median Judaism and some may wonder why? Most Median Jews in the Middle East would not be negatively affected by an official Israeli recognition of core Median Jewry as Jewish. However, the situation of those Median Jews who live asContinue reading “Why Israel Keeps Quiet on Median Jewry”
Iran is Playing for Time
The Iranian regime claims that it will return to the Vienna indirect “negotiations” on November 29, 2021. It is entirely unclear whether it will do so. What is clear however is that it has likely prepared an elaborate diplomatic arsenal to be able to play for time so as to avoid UN sanctions and willContinue reading “Iran is Playing for Time”
Why Tehran Hates America
All forms of Islamism (a modern totalitarian political ideology) are intensely Anti-Semitic and believe in Anti-Jewish conspiracy theories about Jewish world domination. The Iranian regime is no exception. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is notorious for having disseminated the so-called “Protocols of the Elders of Zion”. Islamists believe that the Jews rule the world through AmericaContinue reading “Why Tehran Hates America”
Is Khamenei Becoming Mildly Senile or is he Just Dangerous?
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the person in charge of the Islamic Republic of Iran who makes all the major strategic decisions. There is no doubt that he is the one who made the decision to ditch the JCPOA and race towards the bomb knowing full well that Israel will destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program. HeContinue reading “Is Khamenei Becoming Mildly Senile or is he Just Dangerous?”
Tehran has no Intention of Signing an Agreement with Washington
The regime in Tehran has announced that it will resume the indirect Vienna “negotiations” in a month’s time at the end of November 2021 at a date yet to be specified. Why wait an entire month you may ask? The truth is that Iran has no intention whatsoever of signing an agreement with the UnitedContinue reading “Tehran has no Intention of Signing an Agreement with Washington”
Khamenei and Raisi do not Care About Sanctions
There is a paradox in Iran in that Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader and Ebrahim Raisi, the president, simply do not care about the sanctions regime, yet the sanctions do significantly affect the regional military posture of the regime as the sanctions are very effective in curbing the regional military strength of the Khomeinist empire.Continue reading “Khamenei and Raisi do not Care About Sanctions”
Burning the Assets
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (b. 1939), the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran is in an apocalyptic mood and is betting on the support of Allah. By ditching the JCPOA does he ensure that Israel will destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. By ordering Hezbollah to launch massive barrages of 150 000 rockets andContinue reading “Burning the Assets”
A No-Fly Zone is Far Better Than the JCPOA
There is no reason to mourn the imminent passing of the JCPOA. In fact, a no-fly zone is a much better option than the JCPOA. The JCPOA was set to expire in 2030, a no-fly zone will only expire when the Khomeinist regime falls. The JCPOA allowed Iran to maintain its nuclear weapons program, aContinue reading “A No-Fly Zone is Far Better Than the JCPOA”
The Best Policy Alternative to the JCPOA
The JCPOA era is coming to an end as the JCPOA is close to effective expiration. The US government obviously considers policy alternatives to the rapidly expiring JCPOA. One argument in favor of a no-fly zone over Iran is that it is relatively inexpensive to maintain. It is a cheap military alternative that does notContinue reading “The Best Policy Alternative to the JCPOA”
Khamenei is Making Irrational Decisions
Ali Khamenei’s desire to destroy Israel is fundamentally irrational, it is based in apocalyptic, Anti-Semitic and neo-imperialist fantasies. This fact however does not make the regime any less dangerous. Khamenei’s standing decision to order Hezbollah to unleash massive barrages of tens of thousands of missiles against Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities is also fundamentallyContinue reading “Khamenei is Making Irrational Decisions”
World Powers need to Coordinate
Time is increasingly running out as the JCPOA is effectively expiring. Will the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) take action against Iran? Will the P5+1 prepare a Plan B after the failure of the JCPOA? What about the United States? Is there any teeth to its rhetoric about Iran? Does it have a ready PlanContinue reading “World Powers need to Coordinate”
Tehran is Intent on Domination
Iran was thoroughly Westernized during the reign of the last Shah and Iran remains a sophisticated state adept at communicating with other cultures and fooling their diplomats. For example, did Iranian diplomats astonishingly succeed years ago in convincing Chinese diplomats that Iran ostensibly does not intend to destroy Israel despite constantly declaring the intention toContinue reading “Tehran is Intent on Domination”
Tehran is not Interested in Reconciliation
There is a failure in the current class of Iran experts in ascertaining Iran’s strategic intentions. There is generally a failure in academia of experts on Islamism who do not grasp that we are dealing with a dangerous neo-imperialist, totalitarian, modern political ideology, but rather seem to think that Islamism is “a traditional religion”, “aContinue reading “Tehran is not Interested in Reconciliation”
Rethinking Regime Change Policy on Iran
The Biden Administration just like the Trump administration before it does not with the sole exception of Venezuela advocate regime change in foreign policy. Iran should be another exception. Iran is an exceptionally dangerous regime which poses a significant strategic threat against the United States and its vital national security interests. A no-fly zone isContinue reading “Rethinking Regime Change Policy on Iran”
The Desperate Plight of the Yarsanis
Yarsanism is one of the seven denominations of core Median Judaism. There are approximately 2 to 3 million Yarsanis and most live in Iranian Kurdistan with a significant community living in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Kurdish Yarsanis live in the southernmost part of Kurdistan. Most Yarsanis are Kurds although there are also small communities of Arab,Continue reading “The Desperate Plight of the Yarsanis”
Aliyah Organization 